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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Energy Security and Impact on Commodity Markets

Energy Security and Impact on Commodity Markets

Greece Debt Crisis: EU Racing to Draft Second Greek Bailout - CNBC

Greece Debt Crisis: EU Racing to Draft Second Greek Bailout - CNBC
Greek Aid Package to Be Decided by End of June, Juncker Says (3)
2011-05-31 06:59:29.993 GMT


(Updates euro trading in seventh paragraph.)

By Helene Fouquet
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders will decide on additional aid for Greece by the end of June and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the nation’s debt, said Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro-area finance ministers.
Inspectors from the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank are set to wrap up a review of Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) bailout in coming days. The EU will then formulate its plan for further aid to Greece, which remains shut out of financial markets a year after the rescue package.
“We are waiting for their final judgment,” Juncker, who is also Luxembourg’s prime minister, said yesterday in Paris after meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. “Their position will partly determine our position, so it’s too early.
We will try to solve the Greek problem by the end of June.”
Under the terms of the rescue package, Greece was due to return to financial markets and sell about 30 billion euros of bonds next year. With its 10-year bonds yielding 16.4 percent, more than twice that of the time of the bailout, the EU has indicated Greece will need more aid to plug its financing gap.
The IMF has threatened to withhold its share of the payments until the EU explains how Greece will be funded.

Debt Restructuring

EU and ECB officials remain divided over how to aid Greece, with some European leaders calling for new loans and a debt “re-profiling” -- convincing bondholders to voluntarily accept an extension of maturities. Germany is considering dropping its demand for an early rescheduling of Greek bonds, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people familiar with the matter it didn’t identify.
“The problem of the private-sector involvement will be examined with all the attention required,” Juncker said yesterday. Senior aides to European finance ministers are due to discuss Greece at a previously scheduled meeting tomorrow in Vienna.
The euro rose to three-week high against the dollar on optimism officials will agree on further Greek aid, trading at
$1.4381 at 8:50 a.m. in Brussels, up 0.7 percent on the day.
ECB officials have said “re-profiling” is tantamount to default and would prompt the Frankfurt-based central bank to refuse to accept Greek bonds as collateral in their emergency funding operations, wiping out the capital of the Greek banking system, the biggest holder of the country’s bonds.

Funding Bill

The EU and IMF will have to put up another 30 billion euros in loans to tide Greece over next year with the rest of its
2012-2013 financing needs covered by revenue from asset sales and other measures, the Financial Times reported yesterday, citing ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.
The financial problems that are being experienced in Europe go “way beyond” Greece and a reorganization of the continent’s banking system is necessary, Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “I find it very difficult to restructure Greece without the understanding that we’re probably going to have to restructure Ireland and restructure Portugal.”
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has announced an additional 6 billion euros of budget cuts for this year to meet the bailout goal of shrinking the deficit to 7.5 percent of gross domestic product. The government also pledged to speed 50 billion euros of state asset sales, mostly real estate, to pay down debt, which is set to reach almost 160 percent of GDP this year, the highest in the euro’s history.

Time Running Out

The EU and IMF have called on Papandreou to secure multi- party support for the measures, which are part of a broader four-year austerity package. The country’s main opposition parties rejected the plan in a meeting with Papandreou on May 27. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said after the meeting that it was “essential” for all parties to support the program and “time was running out.”
Antonis Samaras, head of New Democracy, Greece’s largest opposition party, said today that the terms of the Greek bailout must be renegotiated.
“We aren’t talking about renegotiating the targets but the interim stages and ways to achieve these,” Samaras said in an interview with state-run NET TV. He said he backed Papandreou’s plans to fight tax evasion and sell state assets, though he called for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth.

Greek Aid Package to Be Decided by End of June, Juncker Says (3)
2011-05-31 06:59:29.993 GMT


(Updates euro trading in seventh paragraph.)

By Helene Fouquet
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders will decide on additional aid for Greece by the end of June and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the nation’s debt, said Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro-area finance ministers.
Inspectors from the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank are set to wrap up a review of Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) bailout in coming days. The EU will then formulate its plan for further aid to Greece, which remains shut out of financial markets a year after the rescue package.
“We are waiting for their final judgment,” Juncker, who is also Luxembourg’s prime minister, said yesterday in Paris after meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. “Their position will partly determine our position, so it’s too early.
We will try to solve the Greek problem by the end of June.”
Under the terms of the rescue package, Greece was due to return to financial markets and sell about 30 billion euros of bonds next year. With its 10-year bonds yielding 16.4 percent, more than twice that of the time of the bailout, the EU has indicated Greece will need more aid to plug its financing gap.
The IMF has threatened to withhold its share of the payments until the EU explains how Greece will be funded.

Debt Restructuring

EU and ECB officials remain divided over how to aid Greece, with some European leaders calling for new loans and a debt “re-profiling” -- convincing bondholders to voluntarily accept an extension of maturities. Germany is considering dropping its demand for an early rescheduling of Greek bonds, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people familiar with the matter it didn’t identify.
“The problem of the private-sector involvement will be examined with all the attention required,” Juncker said yesterday. Senior aides to European finance ministers are due to discuss Greece at a previously scheduled meeting tomorrow in Vienna.
The euro rose to three-week high against the dollar on optimism officials will agree on further Greek aid, trading at
$1.4381 at 8:50 a.m. in Brussels, up 0.7 percent on the day.
ECB officials have said “re-profiling” is tantamount to default and would prompt the Frankfurt-based central bank to refuse to accept Greek bonds as collateral in their emergency funding operations, wiping out the capital of the Greek banking system, the biggest holder of the country’s bonds.

Funding Bill

The EU and IMF will have to put up another 30 billion euros in loans to tide Greece over next year with the rest of its
2012-2013 financing needs covered by revenue from asset sales and other measures, the Financial Times reported yesterday, citing ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.
The financial problems that are being experienced in Europe go “way beyond” Greece and a reorganization of the continent’s banking system is necessary, Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “I find it very difficult to restructure Greece without the understanding that we’re probably going to have to restructure Ireland and restructure Portugal.”
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has announced an additional 6 billion euros of budget cuts for this year to meet the bailout goal of shrinking the deficit to 7.5 percent of gross domestic product. The government also pledged to speed 50 billion euros of state asset sales, mostly real estate, to pay down debt, which is set to reach almost 160 percent of GDP this year, the highest in the euro’s history.

Time Running Out

The EU and IMF have called on Papandreou to secure multi- party support for the measures, which are part of a broader four-year austerity package. The country’s main opposition parties rejected the plan in a meeting with Papandreou on May 27. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said after the meeting that it was “essential” for all parties to support the program and “time was running out.”
Antonis Samaras, head of New Democracy, Greece’s largest opposition party, said today that the terms of the Greek bailout must be renegotiated.
“We aren’t talking about renegotiating the targets but the interim stages and ways to achieve these,” Samaras said in an interview with state-run NET TV. He said he backed Papandreou’s plans to fight tax evasion and sell state assets, though he called for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth.


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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

How to get Margin of Safety with commodities- NB

How to get margin of safety with Commodities.

According to Warren Buffet "Margin of Safety" are the three most important words in investment. This concept is also the corner stone of the philosophy that Benjamin Graham taught.

To get an answer of what margin of safety would mean in terms of investing in commodities , we need to be able to value a commodity relative to it's price. The lower the price in relation to the value, the higher the margin of safety. Commodities are also non-income producing assets, in fact there is a cost to carry the commodity. This cost is made up by the cost of money as well as the storage cost of the relevant commodity. The prudent commodity investor should thus factor in this cost when calculating value and should be more conservative in valuation to increase the safety margin.

How do we value a commodity? A whole book can be written about the valuation methods for commodities but we will try to capture a few key concepts.

- Production cost
This is the cost of producing the commodity. In the case of grains that will be the cost to produce per bushel. Unfortunately this is a difficult calculation at the best of times.. Sources to get this information would government agencies such as the US Department of Agriculture or the US Department of Energy.

-Producer break-even
This is the price under which some producers will start losing money. If this situation continue for too long, producers will have to stop producing or go insolvent. This method is handy when looking at metals or other commodities that are mined. Sources for information are the corporate reports of mining companies.

Supply/ Demand Ratios
- This method is widely used to determine a relative value number. This method should be used conservatively though, especially when a commodity is priced above production cost. The price might already factor in low supply/demand ratio.


So, this is a mine-field and the best approach is to be as conservative as possible in valuation. As a rule of thumb: If we are close or under production cost, producers are not making money or going out of business and prices have been depressed for a long time, the case for a value investment could be made..


Goldman Calling Commodities Higher

Goldman Sachs called commodities higher this morning suggesting we buy Oil, Copper and Zinc..
I think energy remain long term bullish but I still prefer my Natgas stocks;

New home sales in the US are coming out this morning - so this might give the market some direction.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Italy on Credit watch - more dollar strength possilble

S&P announced that they might drop Italy's Credit rating - with all the problems still in Greece it looks like this whole debt scenario is escalating.. What does this mean for us .

a. Short term dollar strength
b. More retracement in commodity prices..

For now I still stay with a large percentage in Cash and my only new buys are Natgas producers..

PS: Europe is dry; Grains can run up if this continues...

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Where to find value? NATGAS?

We are still finding it very hard to see value in Commodities. The only idea that seem to make sense is that Natural Gas is still undervalued. We would avoid the ETF or Futures for now as the carry costs will make the trade difficult. I am more inclined to look at cheap producers; So I still like Contango Oil & Gas (MCF) and Ultra Petroleum (UPL)..

Fund Manager turned Farmer faces drought


England’s hottest weather in more than three centuries is making Graham Birch, the country’s best natural-resourcesfund manager for a decade, concerned about the state of his spring crop.
The corn and grasses grown for livestock on the 2,300-acre farm in the southwestern county of Dorset are already beset by the heat and lack of water, Birch said by phone on May 18. Rain will be needed soon to keep yields for wheat and rapeseed planted at the end of last year from dropping, he said.
European farmers are contending with the driest growing conditions in more than three decades. The European Union warned this week that soil moisture is now “critical” in at least six countries after some places had their driest March on record. France’s soft-wheat crop, the EU’s largest, will drop 12 percent, and German output will slide 7.2 percent, local forecasters said May 18.
“It’s the spring crops I’m worried about because that’s what’s seeing some severe drought stress,” said Birch. “It’d be nice to have some rain in the next couple of weeks.”
Birch started a sabbatical from BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager, in 2009 and formally left in 2010, when the team was managing $36.3 billion of assets. His BlackRock Gold and General Fund was the top performer among 858 U.K.- domiciled mutual funds over a decade, averaging gains of almost 23 percent a year, data from Morningstar Inc. (MORN) show.

Ruined Crops

The former fund manager left BlackRock in a year in which drought or flooding from Europe toCanada ruined crops and spurred Russia to ban grain exports. Wheat rose as much as 90 percent and corn 87 percent, driving the United Nations Food Price Index to a record and draining global stockpiles.
Weather is threatening crops again this year, from drought in China to temperatures as high as 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) in Kansas. Wheat traded in Chicago rose as much as 7.6 percent on May 18 as European forecasters predicted smaller harvests.
On Birch’s farm, winter wheat and rapeseed were seeded in the fall when the ground was moist and roots could grow deep. Corn and grasses planted this spring in dry conditions didn’t have those same conditions, he said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-20/blackrock-fund-manager-turned-farmer-birch-contending-with-drought-stress.html

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Friday, May 20, 2011

More on Greece - DEFAULT LIKELY

Please see extract from Bloomberg below- If this scenario plays out, the stock market might be in for a bumpy ride..

Best Trade Idea - PAY OFF SOME OF YOUR OWN DEBT IF YOU HAVE

Fitch Cuts Greece to B+, Says Maturity Extension Is Default (2) 2011-05-20 16:16:35.390 GMT


     (Updates Lagarde quotes in sixth paragraph, swaps in
seventh.)

By Maria Petrakis
     May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s credit rating was cut three levels by Fitch Ratings, which said that even a voluntary extension of its bond maturities being studied by European Union policy makers would be considered a default.
     Fitch cut its rating to B+, four levels below investment grade, from BB+ and said that the country could face a further reduction in its creditworthiness. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds rose 57 basis points to 16.6 percent, more than twice the level of a year ago when Greece accepted an EU-led bailout.
     “The rating downgrade reflects the scale of the challenge facing Greece in implementing a radical fiscal and structural reform program necessary to secure solvency of the state and the foundations for sustained economic recovery, Fitch said in an e- mailed statement.
     More than a year after Greece received a 110 billion-euro
($156 billion) aid package that aimed to stem the spread of the region’s sovereign crisis, the nation’s debt is rising, borrowing costs are near records and European policy makers are considering additional aid. Ireland and Portugal followed Greece in seeking bailouts as investors shunned the debt of the region’s other high-deficit nations.
     Greece’s two-year bonds yield more than 25 percent, indicating investors are betting Greece won’t be able to return to markets as planned under the bailout next year, when it’s due to sell about 27 billion euros of bonds.
                               
                          Default Risk

     “Greece risks a sovereign default and finance ministers have expressed strong doubts about the sluggish progress,” in controlling its public finances, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in an interview published today in Austrian newspaper Der Standard.
     The cost of insuring Greece debt against default rose 13 basis points to 1,335, down from a record 1,375 on May 9.
     “The B+ rating incorporates Fitch’s expectation that substantial new money will be provided to Greece by the EU and IMF and that Greek sovereign bonds will not be subject to a ‘soft restructuring’ or ‘re-profiling’ that would trigger a ’credit event’ and default rating,” Fitch said.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Greek Ruins

The Price Trend of the Athens Composite Index Since Late 1997

Greek stocks just hit a new 14-year low today, as Greek bond yields remain near all-time highs. The Greek 10-year bond now yields more than 15%. That's a great yield...if you believe you would actually receive it.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) reported a stake in MasterCard Inc. (MA),


Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) reported a stake in MasterCard Inc. (MA), the second-biggest payments network, after the billionaire chairman hired money manager Todd Combs to handle part of his company’s portfolio.
Buffett’s firm owned 216,000 shares of MasterCard on March 31, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said in a regulatory filing listing its U.S. stock portfolio. The stake is valued at $60.3 million, based on the closing price on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, when the filing was released.
Our Idea is still Western Union which is another stock that Todd Combs like...

Glencore creates wealth - - Commodities alive and well

Glencore Executives’ $23 Billion Mother Lode Beats Wall Street
2011-05-19 16:33:13.352 GMT


By Christine Harper and Zijing Wu
     May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Glencore International Plc’s initial public offering values the stakes of the company’s top six executives at $23 billion, surpassing wealth generated by some of Wall Street’s most storied firms.
     In contrast to Glencore, a commodities trader based in Baar, Switzerland, the eight senior executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. held stakes worth a combined $1.26 billion at the time of that firm’s IPO in 1999, while Blackstone Group LP’s top seven executives held $11.9 billion worth of stock after selling shares worth $2.8 billion in their 2007 IPO, according to the New York-based firms’ prospectuses.
     Glencore sold 1.14 billion shares, or about 16.4 percent of the company after the IPO, to the public and so-called cornerstone investors including Abu Dhabi’s Aabar Investments PJSC and BlackRock Inc. The company has an option to sell an additional 116.9 million shares to meet demand.