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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Great opportunity in Crude
We believe there is a great trading opportunity in Crude oil.. We like being long Crude as a value play whilst selling Call options in Jan 2011 thus capturing the spread as well
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Crude Oil Spread Opportunity
I see an opportunity brweing in Crude Oil; Purchase Oct Crude - Sell Jan Crude ... I think there is $ 2 per barrel to be made here...
Monday, August 2, 2010
Russia's grain harvest may fall 20-26 percent to 72-78 million tons in 2010
Russia's grain harvest may fall 20-26 percent to 72-78 million tons in 2010 as Russia suffers its worst drought in decades, Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky said on Monday.
Russia's 2009 harvest totaled 97 million tons.
The Russian Grain Union predicts three possible scenarios for development of the grain market.
In the worst case, Russia will harvest only 72 million tons and export 11 million tons, while reserve stocks will amount to 10.4-14.4 million tons.
Russia's 2009 harvest totaled 97 million tons.
The Russian Grain Union predicts three possible scenarios for development of the grain market.
In the worst case, Russia will harvest only 72 million tons and export 11 million tons, while reserve stocks will amount to 10.4-14.4 million tons.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Wheat Dryness remains
Wheat dryness in Europe is a huge problem in a moment and in my trip trough France I could see how dry the country is compared to last year.. I believe the Long Term fundamentals for wheat are slowly turning decidedly bullish..
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Peabody scouting MacArthur?
There are rumours today that Peabody energy might make a new bid on MacArthur Coal - We own this and it might be a good idea to buy some more...
Monday, July 5, 2010
Wheat Gains for Fifth Day in Paris as Dry Weather May Hurt Crop ...
We hold our longs on wheat - its always darkest before dawn - seem to be little bits of bullish news coming out of the woodwork all over the world over the last few weeks ...
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat climbed for a fifth day in Paris on concern that hot, dry weather in northwestern Europe and Russia will hurt production.
Milling wheat for November delivery rose 2.7 percent to 154.25 euros ($193.32) a metric ton, the highest close for the contract since June 2009, on NYSE Liffe. The grain has climbed 11 percent in the past five sessions.
Temperatures in France and Germany, the European Union’s largest wheat growers, exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) last week, reducing the yield potential for local crops. The U.K., which ranks third, had its driest first half of a year since 1929, the country’s Met Office said June 30.
Prices rose on “concerns about damage because of the strong heat,” Paris-based farm adviser Agritel said in a comment on its website. “Weather conditions in Russia remain very adverse at the moment, with very high temperatures.”
Russia said July 1 it will cut the forecast for this year’s grain crop from the current 88 million to 90 million tons as the country suffers its worst drought in a decade.
Rainfall in some of the main French, German and U.K. grain-growing regions was between 60 percent and 80 percent of normal in the 180 days through June 29, according to forecaster Martell Crop Projections.
Dry Conditions
“Western Europe drought damage may be underestimated,” agricultural meteorologist Gail Martell, who heads the crop- weather forecaster, said in a July 2 note on her website. “Conditions have been dry for six months.”
Trading on the Chicago Board of Trade was closed today for the Independence Day holiday.
Corn for November delivery rose a record 4.4 percent to 160 euros a ton in Paris, advancing for a fourth session to the highest closing price since the contract started trading in June last year.
“In corn, the dry conditions in France are starting to worry the operators, while inversely in Hungary it’s floods that seem to have destroyed about 16,000 hectares (39,500 acres),” Agritel said.
Excessive rain in May and June destroyed crops in Hungary, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. France is the European Union’s largest corn producer, ahead of Italy and Hungary.
Rapeseed for November delivery rose 0.6 percent to 328.75 euros a ton in Paris. Malting barley for delivery in March added 4.7 percent to 185 euros a ton.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Wheat plantings great for our trade!
Lowest wheat plantings since 1971 is great news for our carry trade
Great carry trade in Wheat!
My feeling is that there is currently a great carry-trade arbitrage opportunity in wheat.. Our trade is to buy December 2010 CBOT wheat / Sell July 2011 CBOT wheat.. The chart below shows clearly that the spread is miss-priced..
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Friday, June 25, 2010
Gur could threaten world's return to sugar surplus ...
I'm long sugar in our fund for various reasons, but below find an interesting use of sugar that many may not be aware of ...
A revival in the popularity of gur in India could upset forecasts of a healthy surplus in world sugar production next year, and help underpin prices of the sweetener, a leading analyst has said.
The comments came as sugar jumped more than 3% in New York to cross 17 cents a pound for the first time since April.
Kona Haque, a commodities analyst at Macquarie, said that many forecasts, including the bank's own, of a return to excess world sugar production, after two years of deficit, assumed that increasing amounts of cane would continue to be diverted from making gur to manufacturing sugar.
Production of gur, a crude cane-based sweetener popular in rural areas of India, has taken a back seat since sugar prices soared, with US attaches in New Delhi expecting a fall of some 15% in output in 2010-11.
However, such assumptions may prove misguided, now that the correction in sugar prices since February has driven them below the price of gur, which typically accounts for about 40% of India's cane crop, Ms Haque said.
"But we do no know how much will go to sugar as opposed to [alternative sweeteners].
"More manufacture of gur is an alternative option. That is one risk you do need to think about in terms of India's [sugar] production rebound."
Ms Haque added in comments to Agrimoney.com that gur was a risk to assumptions of a return to world sugar surplus, but felt that another year of deficit was "unlikely".
Thursday, June 24, 2010
New Leadership in Aus - Good for our Coal investment
It looks like the proposed mining tax is going to be reviewed.. I am still very bullish on Mac Arthur Coal
By Candice Zachariahs
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s mining stocks rose and the currency ended two days of losses against the yen as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was forced out by his deputy, sparking speculation the government may change a proposed mining tax. Shares of resource companies including Macarthur Coal Ltd. and Riversdale Mining Ltd. led the increase in resources stocks, balancing losses in utilities and financial shares that saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index finish little changed at the close of trading in Sydney. Rudd’s popularity plunged after criticism from mining companies including Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd. and London-based Rio Tinto Group over plans to impose a 40 percent levy on mining profits from 2012. Julia Gillard, who has taken
over from Rudd, said she was “throwing open the government’s door” to negotiate with the mining industry.
By Candice Zachariahs
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s mining stocks rose and the currency ended two days of losses against the yen as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was forced out by his deputy, sparking speculation the government may change a proposed mining tax. Shares of resource companies including Macarthur Coal Ltd. and Riversdale Mining Ltd. led the increase in resources stocks, balancing losses in utilities and financial shares that saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index finish little changed at the close of trading in Sydney. Rudd’s popularity plunged after criticism from mining companies including Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd. and London-based Rio Tinto Group over plans to impose a 40 percent levy on mining profits from 2012. Julia Gillard, who has taken
over from Rudd, said she was “throwing open the government’s door” to negotiate with the mining industry.
Monday, June 21, 2010
The wheat story continues - I am a seller of Sep wheat atm puts
Subject: Canada planting ends with 82 pct done-Wheat Board
14:38 21Jun10 RTRS-
* Crop insurance deadlines pass, no more planting seen
* Smallest W. Canada acreage of wheat, barley in decades
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 21 (Reuters) - Wet conditions limited planting by Western Canadian farmers this spring to only 82 percent of the original planned acreage, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Monday.
Farmers are not expected to plant any more, after the final crop insurance deadlines passed on Sunday, the Wheat Board said. Crops seeded this late have a good chance of not maturing before autumn frost. Farmers are expected to plant their smallest acreage of wheat, durum and barley in decades and leave up to one-fifth of Western Canada's farmland fallow after record rains this spring, the Wheat Board said earlier this month.
Canada is normally the world's top shipper of spring wheat, durum and canola and the No. 2 oat producer.
I am a seller of Sep Wheat atm puts - and a buyer of Sep Futures/ selling Dec Calls agains the longs thus capturing the spread as well which is too high..
14:38 21Jun10 RTRS-
* Crop insurance deadlines pass, no more planting seen
* Smallest W. Canada acreage of wheat, barley in decades
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 21 (Reuters) - Wet conditions limited planting by Western Canadian farmers this spring to only 82 percent of the original planned acreage, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Monday.
Farmers are not expected to plant any more, after the final crop insurance deadlines passed on Sunday, the Wheat Board said. Crops seeded this late have a good chance of not maturing before autumn frost. Farmers are expected to plant their smallest acreage of wheat, durum and barley in decades and leave up to one-fifth of Western Canada's farmland fallow after record rains this spring, the Wheat Board said earlier this month.
Canada is normally the world's top shipper of spring wheat, durum and canola and the No. 2 oat producer.
I am a seller of Sep Wheat atm puts - and a buyer of Sep Futures/ selling Dec Calls agains the longs thus capturing the spread as well which is too high..
Commodities a buy - China revalues currecny
In my view commodities is a screaming buy as China allowed its currency to appreciate against the dollar. This is a very bullish long term structural change in the market and the investment case for holding hard assets have just increased significantly.. This is a strong buy signal for commodities and related investments..
A Chart of the Maradia Commodity Index below...
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Quality Wheat is a buy..Canadian Farmers to leave large unplanted acreage due to rain
06/18 13:55 CDT Heavy rain shuts Canadian highway, prevents planting
* 100 mm (3.9 inches) falls in SW Saskatchewan
* Farmers to leave large unplanted acreage due to rain
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 18 (Reuters) - Heavy rain swamped the Canadian Prairies on Friday, ending the last hopes for cropplanting in some regions and closing a stretch of the main cross-country highway.
Rain covered much of the Prairies, Canada's primary grain belt, with Environment Canada estimating that close to 100 mm (3.9 inches) had fallen in southwestern Saskatchewan from Thursday to Friday. Highways officials in Saskatchewan and Alberta closed the Trans-Canada Highway near the provincial boundary and set up extensivee detours because of flooding problems on an intersecting Alberta highway.
Sunday is the final insurance deadline for Prairie farmers to sow crops, but the Canadian Wheat Board expects them to leave the most unplanted acres in 39 years. The worst affected farming areas are in eastern
Saskatchewan, but smaller parts of southern Alberta and Manitoba have also been hit.
"I don't think there will be any seeding anywhere between now and Sunday," said Manitoba farmer and canola futures trader
Bill Craddock.
(Reporting by Rod Nickel; editing by Rob Wilson)
((rod.nickel@thomsonreuters.com; +1 204 947 3548; Reuters
* 100 mm (3.9 inches) falls in SW Saskatchewan
* Farmers to leave large unplanted acreage due to rain
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 18 (Reuters) - Heavy rain swamped the Canadian Prairies on Friday, ending the last hopes for cropplanting in some regions and closing a stretch of the main cross-country highway.
Rain covered much of the Prairies, Canada's primary grain belt, with Environment Canada estimating that close to 100 mm (3.9 inches) had fallen in southwestern Saskatchewan from Thursday to Friday. Highways officials in Saskatchewan and Alberta closed the Trans-Canada Highway near the provincial boundary and set up extensivee detours because of flooding problems on an intersecting Alberta highway.
Sunday is the final insurance deadline for Prairie farmers to sow crops, but the Canadian Wheat Board expects them to leave the most unplanted acres in 39 years. The worst affected farming areas are in eastern
Saskatchewan, but smaller parts of southern Alberta and Manitoba have also been hit.
"I don't think there will be any seeding anywhere between now and Sunday," said Manitoba farmer and canola futures trader
Bill Craddock.
(Reporting by Rod Nickel; editing by Rob Wilson)
((rod.nickel@thomsonreuters.com; +1 204 947 3548; Reuters
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Signs of a drought in Iowa?
http://www.omaha.com/article/20100615/NEWS01/706169929
Signs of a drought in Iowa?
MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
It's hard to think of drought with rivers and creeks running bank to bank with recent rains, but that is just what an Iowa State University Extension climatologist said could happen.
Iowa is long overdue for a major drought, said Elwynn Taylor, and there are signs it could happen this year.
Taylor said the state averages an extended dry spell every 19 years. Tree rings from the past eight centuries prove it, he said.
Despite ample moisture the past six months, history and emerging weather patterns indicate the spigot could abruptly shut off.
Taylor, who's also an agronomist, said the longest time between droughts is 23 years. The last one was in 1988 {So it’s been 22 years since 1988 drought}.
“Yes, we're certainly due looking at history,” Taylor said. “A lot of people would be happy if it was dry next week, but not for six weeks (or more).”
The most substantial drought indicator is the developing weather phenomenon called La Niña, Taylor said. Pacific Ocean temperatures are cooling, which often leads to dry and hot weather in the Midwest. Taylor expects on official start of La Niña within weeks.
Other drought indicators include:
Ÿ A partial low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Low pressure redirects moist air from that area to the Yukon instead of the Midwest.
Ÿ The Carolinas are abnormally dry. Sixteen of the last 17 droughts affecting the Corn Belt started in those two states.
While there are plenty of reasons to believe a dry summer is ahead, Taylor said it's not a guarantee. He said Bermuda high pressure is still pushing moisture north out of the Gulf of Mexico. That supplies 80 percent or more of the region's rain.
Matt Sorensen of Waverly hopes he doesn't have to turn the irrigation system on to water corn along U.S. Highway 218. But if he does, at least he can stave off disaster in one field.
“It will be up to Mother Nature. I won't lay awake at night worrying about it,” Sorensen said.
If La Niña kicks in, which Taylor expects, the chances of below-average yields increase from 50 to 70 percent, he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts corn and soybeans this year will average 163.4 and 42.9 bushels per acre, respectively.
Government statistics show corn and soybeans statewide averaged 84 and 31 bushels per acre, respectively, in 1988.
Taylor said advances in plant genetics and breeding have substantially increased yields since the '80s, but the percentage of yield loss endured by farmers during a drought would still be the same.
A drought also occurred in 1983, resulting in similar yield losses to '88. Taylor said this year is eerily similar to 1983, when El Niño — the warming of central and eastern waters in the tropical Pacific, which often brings moisture locally — turns into a La Niña.
“It was wet to start out with and by the middle of July, it was bone dry and hot,” Taylor said. “This is as rapid of change I've seen since 1950.”
Waverly farmer Bob Busch remembers the droughts of the '80s well. He doesn't want a repeat performance.
“A lot of people collected or were on the threshold of collecting crop insurance; '88 was the worst,” Busch said.
If the summer turns dry and hot, Busch is more worried about beans than corn. There's enough soil moisture to get corn through the critical tasseling period in mid-July he said, but it could run out by the time soybeans fill and set pods a month later. Corn is also more drought-resistant these days, he said.
He's taking Taylor's warning seriously. Busch is making sure fields are clean so weeds don't compete for water and is scouting for pests early.
“I can believe the weather could switch,” he said.
Signs of a drought in Iowa?
MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
It's hard to think of drought with rivers and creeks running bank to bank with recent rains, but that is just what an Iowa State University Extension climatologist said could happen.
Iowa is long overdue for a major drought, said Elwynn Taylor, and there are signs it could happen this year.
Taylor said the state averages an extended dry spell every 19 years. Tree rings from the past eight centuries prove it, he said.
Despite ample moisture the past six months, history and emerging weather patterns indicate the spigot could abruptly shut off.
Taylor, who's also an agronomist, said the longest time between droughts is 23 years. The last one was in 1988 {So it’s been 22 years since 1988 drought}.
“Yes, we're certainly due looking at history,” Taylor said. “A lot of people would be happy if it was dry next week, but not for six weeks (or more).”
The most substantial drought indicator is the developing weather phenomenon called La Niña, Taylor said. Pacific Ocean temperatures are cooling, which often leads to dry and hot weather in the Midwest. Taylor expects on official start of La Niña within weeks.
Other drought indicators include:
Ÿ A partial low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Low pressure redirects moist air from that area to the Yukon instead of the Midwest.
Ÿ The Carolinas are abnormally dry. Sixteen of the last 17 droughts affecting the Corn Belt started in those two states.
While there are plenty of reasons to believe a dry summer is ahead, Taylor said it's not a guarantee. He said Bermuda high pressure is still pushing moisture north out of the Gulf of Mexico. That supplies 80 percent or more of the region's rain.
Matt Sorensen of Waverly hopes he doesn't have to turn the irrigation system on to water corn along U.S. Highway 218. But if he does, at least he can stave off disaster in one field.
“It will be up to Mother Nature. I won't lay awake at night worrying about it,” Sorensen said.
If La Niña kicks in, which Taylor expects, the chances of below-average yields increase from 50 to 70 percent, he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts corn and soybeans this year will average 163.4 and 42.9 bushels per acre, respectively.
Government statistics show corn and soybeans statewide averaged 84 and 31 bushels per acre, respectively, in 1988.
Taylor said advances in plant genetics and breeding have substantially increased yields since the '80s, but the percentage of yield loss endured by farmers during a drought would still be the same.
A drought also occurred in 1983, resulting in similar yield losses to '88. Taylor said this year is eerily similar to 1983, when El Niño — the warming of central and eastern waters in the tropical Pacific, which often brings moisture locally — turns into a La Niña.
“It was wet to start out with and by the middle of July, it was bone dry and hot,” Taylor said. “This is as rapid of change I've seen since 1950.”
Waverly farmer Bob Busch remembers the droughts of the '80s well. He doesn't want a repeat performance.
“A lot of people collected or were on the threshold of collecting crop insurance; '88 was the worst,” Busch said.
If the summer turns dry and hot, Busch is more worried about beans than corn. There's enough soil moisture to get corn through the critical tasseling period in mid-July he said, but it could run out by the time soybeans fill and set pods a month later. Corn is also more drought-resistant these days, he said.
He's taking Taylor's warning seriously. Busch is making sure fields are clean so weeds don't compete for water and is scouting for pests early.
“I can believe the weather could switch,” he said.
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, he slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upperlayers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, he slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upperlayers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf
Monday, June 14, 2010
Claymore Shipping ETF Provides Investors Access to Shipping Companies
Claymore Shipping ETF Provides Investors Access to Shipping Companies
Business Wire
LISLE, Ill. -- June 11, 2010
Claymore Securities Inc., announced today the launch of the Claymore Shipping ETF (NYSE Arca: SEA), (the “Fund”), on the NYSE Arca. SEA is expected to reclaim the position held by Claymore’s previous shipping ETF as the largest, most actively traded US-listed shipping ETF, by providing investors with a cost-efficient means of broadly accessing the rapidly growing global maritime shipping industry.
“We are pleased to be launching the Claymore Shipping ETF, which will provide investors with cost-efficient and broad access to the global shipping industry,” said William Belden, Managing Director, Claymore Securities, Inc. “Because our first shipping ETF was so popular with investors and advisors, the successor fund largely mirrors its structure and seeks to track the performance of the same index.”
The Fund seeks to replicate the performance, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of the Delta Global Shipping Index (Index Ticker: DGAGSI) which was developed and is maintained by Delta Global Indices LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Delta Global Advisors Inc. The Delta Global Shipping Index includes companies that derive at least 80% of their revenues from operating or leasing ships or from the transportation of goods via ship. Additionally, index constituents must have at least $250 million in market capitalization and a 30-day average daily trading volume of at least $2 million.
Business Wire
LISLE, Ill. -- June 11, 2010
Claymore Securities Inc., announced today the launch of the Claymore Shipping ETF (NYSE Arca: SEA), (the “Fund”), on the NYSE Arca. SEA is expected to reclaim the position held by Claymore’s previous shipping ETF as the largest, most actively traded US-listed shipping ETF, by providing investors with a cost-efficient means of broadly accessing the rapidly growing global maritime shipping industry.
“We are pleased to be launching the Claymore Shipping ETF, which will provide investors with cost-efficient and broad access to the global shipping industry,” said William Belden, Managing Director, Claymore Securities, Inc. “Because our first shipping ETF was so popular with investors and advisors, the successor fund largely mirrors its structure and seeks to track the performance of the same index.”
The Fund seeks to replicate the performance, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of the Delta Global Shipping Index (Index Ticker: DGAGSI) which was developed and is maintained by Delta Global Indices LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Delta Global Advisors Inc. The Delta Global Shipping Index includes companies that derive at least 80% of their revenues from operating or leasing ships or from the transportation of goods via ship. Additionally, index constituents must have at least $250 million in market capitalization and a 30-day average daily trading volume of at least $2 million.
Corn Extends Longest Rally Since April on Demand
Demand from China also picking up ... We are long corn in our Fund, all great bull markets are demand driven right? Could be an interesting few months ahead for corn.
Corn Has Demand Surprise as Summer Growing Begins - ( MOS looks cheap)
With minimal expectations of any sizable changes in this month’s crop and supply/demand revisions, the
USDA threw a curve at the markets when it substantially increased corn’s old-crop ethanol demand outlook in this week’s updates. The latest soybean and wheat adjustments were relatively modest in comparison.
Instead of waiting to see the next quarterly stocks report later this month to make changes in corn’s domestic
demand level, the USDA boosted corn’s old-crop ethanol by 150 million bu. to 4.55 billion based upon ethanol’s strong March output (released in late May) and the seasonal tendency to average this level or more in the second half of crop year in the past. They did cut corn’s feed demand by 25 million, but upped this feedgrain’s food demand by 10 million resulting in 135 million drop in 2009/10’s stocks to 1.6 billion.
My feeling is that Corn might surprise us with a counter-seasonal rally; Chinese demand is another factor that we should take into consideration.
In our equity portfolio Mosaic (MOS) our fertilizer company looks really cheap at the moment....
USDA threw a curve at the markets when it substantially increased corn’s old-crop ethanol demand outlook in this week’s updates. The latest soybean and wheat adjustments were relatively modest in comparison.
Instead of waiting to see the next quarterly stocks report later this month to make changes in corn’s domestic
demand level, the USDA boosted corn’s old-crop ethanol by 150 million bu. to 4.55 billion based upon ethanol’s strong March output (released in late May) and the seasonal tendency to average this level or more in the second half of crop year in the past. They did cut corn’s feed demand by 25 million, but upped this feedgrain’s food demand by 10 million resulting in 135 million drop in 2009/10’s stocks to 1.6 billion.
My feeling is that Corn might surprise us with a counter-seasonal rally; Chinese demand is another factor that we should take into consideration.
In our equity portfolio Mosaic (MOS) our fertilizer company looks really cheap at the moment....
Friday, June 11, 2010
World Cup - Trade - Spain ranked first in value of players
For those interested in the world cup, I found this interesting analysis on Bloomberg...
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The transfer market says Spain should win the 2010 World Cup, according to UniCredit Group.
The CHART OF THE DAY ranks leading football teams in terms of the combined transfer value of their players. Spain tops the list at 650 million euros ($787 million), followed by England, France and Brazil. The World Cup begins in South Africa today.
“The strength of a team is best reflected in the transfer value of its players,” said Andreas Rees, an economist at UniCredit in Munich. “The higher the price of a player, the greater the assessment of his football skills.”
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The transfer market says Spain should win the 2010 World Cup, according to UniCredit Group.
The CHART OF THE DAY ranks leading football teams in terms of the combined transfer value of their players. Spain tops the list at 650 million euros ($787 million), followed by England, France and Brazil. The World Cup begins in South Africa today.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Black Swan spreading to the Isle of Man?
Black Swan spreading to Ilse of Man?
Debt Spreading 'Like a Cancer': Black Swan Author
The economic situation today is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a concept, Nassim Taleb told CNBC Thursday... http://www.cnbc.com/
Here is a picture of a Black Swan I took in the Isle of Man.. Looks dangerous...
Debt Spreading 'Like a Cancer': Black Swan Author
The economic situation today is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a concept, Nassim Taleb told CNBC Thursday... http://www.cnbc.com/
Here is a picture of a Black Swan I took in the Isle of Man.. Looks dangerous...
Cereals 2010
Visited Cereals Event yesterday - UK's premier arable event, near Cambridge - great day, talking to different players in the supply chain. Heavy rain in the afternoon, much needed for local crops - UK has had a long winter & dry spring, opinions vary widely re. impact this will have on yields. Common opinion is that winter crops should be ok with spring crops negatively impacted.
Path dependence of beliefs ...
There are reasons to believe that, for evolutionary purposes, we may be programed to build a loyalty to ideas in which we have invested time ...
What characterizes real speculators like Soros from the rest is that their activities are devoid of path dependence. They are totally free from their past actions. Every day is a clean slate.
Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
What characterizes real speculators like Soros from the rest is that their activities are devoid of path dependence. They are totally free from their past actions. Every day is a clean slate.
Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Qatar, Russia Shutter Gas Supply as Prices Sag: Energy Markets
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar, the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas, will idle 66 percent of its export plants this year, reversing earlier plans and joining Russia in curtailing supply amid a global glut ...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-09/qatar-russia-shutter-gas-supply-as-prices-sag-energy-markets.html
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-09/qatar-russia-shutter-gas-supply-as-prices-sag-energy-markets.html
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Higher Oil Prices because of Gulf spill?
The Us Government slashed its forecasts for production in the Gulf of Mexico by 6.1% yesterday. The Department of Energy said in its monthly short term outlook that prodcution will fall by 26 000 barrels a day in the 4th quarter and and 70 000 barrels per day next year.. This decline will come in a time that the US economy should rebound which can be very supportive for Crude prices.. In our own portfolio I am positive about our core enery holdings. i.e Gulf Port Energy, Contango Oil & Gas and Canadian Resources..
I have a lot of questions regarding BP and buying the shares now.. It is a higly speculative idea and BP shares might end up being a falling knife.. so beware.. A safer idea for me would be to purchase BP debt, the changes of BP defaulting on its debt is very slim..
I have a lot of questions regarding BP and buying the shares now.. It is a higly speculative idea and BP shares might end up being a falling knife.. so beware.. A safer idea for me would be to purchase BP debt, the changes of BP defaulting on its debt is very slim..
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Loews Corp -excerpt from Barrons
Here is an excerpt:
“Loews shares are trading below the net asset value of its public holdings, meaning investors essentially get the company's $3.4 billion in cash and its other assets for free. A back-of-the envelope calculation of Loews' new asset-value yields a value of about $53 per share, well above the current share price of about $37. That's about a 29% discount.”
“Loews shares are trading below the net asset value of its public holdings, meaning investors essentially get the company's $3.4 billion in cash and its other assets for free. A back-of-the envelope calculation of Loews' new asset-value yields a value of about $53 per share, well above the current share price of about $37. That's about a 29% discount.”
Swiss Parliament Rejects Deal To Reveal US Tax Cheats
Swiss Parliament Rejects Deal To Reveal US Tax Cheats
Published: Tuesday, 8 Jun 2010 | 10:34 AM ET Text Size By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
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Swiss banking secrecy will not go quietly into the night.
Earlier today, the lower house of the Swiss Parliament rejected a deal with the United States to turn over bank data from thousands of American customers of UBS suspected of being tax cheats.
The deal was approved last week by the upper house of Switzerland’s Parliament. The two houses have until the parliamentary session ends on June 18 to reconcile the differences.
The Swiss government agreed last summer to disclose the data of 4,450 customers, ending a lawsuit brought by federal prosecutors who accused the Swiss bank of aiding US tax cheats. But a Swiss court said the deal violated national laws requiring banking secrecy. The parliamentary votes were required to amend the laws and permit the deal.
Under pressure from the G20 to relax its long-running banking secrecy rules, the Swiss have cut deals to share information with a number of foreign governments, including the UK, France and Denmark. It’s not immediately clear whether those deals are also imperiled.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 07:35:39 08 Jun 2010
LinksList Documentid: 37571786
The World's Most Secretive Tax HavensSwiss Report Raps Government Over UBS CrisisCountries with the Most Foreign Direct Investment
The US deal is not necessarily dead. Under the terms of the deal with the US, the Swiss have until August to turn over the names. The lower house’s two largest parties—right of center People’s Party and the left of center Social Democrats—have said they will support the deal so long as parliament approves other financial reform measures. The People’s Party wants a commitment that taxes on banker’s bonuses won’t be raised. The Social Democrats want to regulate risk-taking at the country’s "Too Big To Fail" banks.
If the lower house doesn’t approve the deal, the US may revive the lawsuit against UBS. The US had initially sought data on 54,000 UBS [UBS 12.57 0.12 (+0.96%) ] customers.
Published: Tuesday, 8 Jun 2010 | 10:34 AM ET Text Size By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
DiggBuzz FacebookTwitter More Share
Swiss banking secrecy will not go quietly into the night.
Earlier today, the lower house of the Swiss Parliament rejected a deal with the United States to turn over bank data from thousands of American customers of UBS suspected of being tax cheats.
The deal was approved last week by the upper house of Switzerland’s Parliament. The two houses have until the parliamentary session ends on June 18 to reconcile the differences.
The Swiss government agreed last summer to disclose the data of 4,450 customers, ending a lawsuit brought by federal prosecutors who accused the Swiss bank of aiding US tax cheats. But a Swiss court said the deal violated national laws requiring banking secrecy. The parliamentary votes were required to amend the laws and permit the deal.
Under pressure from the G20 to relax its long-running banking secrecy rules, the Swiss have cut deals to share information with a number of foreign governments, including the UK, France and Denmark. It’s not immediately clear whether those deals are also imperiled.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 07:35:39 08 Jun 2010
LinksList Documentid: 37571786
The World's Most Secretive Tax HavensSwiss Report Raps Government Over UBS CrisisCountries with the Most Foreign Direct Investment
The US deal is not necessarily dead. Under the terms of the deal with the US, the Swiss have until August to turn over the names. The lower house’s two largest parties—right of center People’s Party and the left of center Social Democrats—have said they will support the deal so long as parliament approves other financial reform measures. The People’s Party wants a commitment that taxes on banker’s bonuses won’t be raised. The Social Democrats want to regulate risk-taking at the country’s "Too Big To Fail" banks.
If the lower house doesn’t approve the deal, the US may revive the lawsuit against UBS. The US had initially sought data on 54,000 UBS [UBS 12.57 0.12 (+0.96%) ] customers.
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