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Monday, August 29, 2011

The Great Casual-Dining Upheaval

A recent Chipotle outlet in Virginia (left); Chili's in Sherman, Okla.

A recent Chipotle outlet in Virginia (left); Chili's in Sherman, Okla.

By

Andy Saarima says he hasn’t been to a “subpar” restaurant such as a Chili’s or Applebee’s in more than a year. The 29-year-old Chicago bartender would rather eat at Five Guys Burgers and Fries: “There are just so many smaller, faster options with way better food.”

American twentysomethings are snubbing the restaurant chains their parents took them to as kids. Chili’s, Applebee’s, Ruby Tuesday, and other so-called casual-dining chains are already struggling to revive sales in the wake of an epic recession. Now they risk losing an important consumer demographic group unless they remake themselves. “If you have a little bit of money and you’re educated, you want a boutique feel, less chain,” says Brad Swanson, who runs the restaurant group at KeyBanc Capital Markets, an investment banking and equity research firm.

The casual-dining chains, which serve reasonably priced sit-down meals, are losing customers to such “fast-casual” upstarts such as Five Guys, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Panera Bread, which offer counter service, trendy menus, and not much else. Sales at full-service restaurants, which include casual dining, fell 1.3 percent, to $166 billion last year, vs. a 6 percent rise for fast-casual chains, says researcher Technomic.

Revenue at Chili’s parent, Brinker International, has declined for four straight years. Sales at DineEquity, which owns Applebee’s and IHOP, have slid in nine of the last ten quarters (in part because the company has sold about half its Applebee’s locations to various franchisees). With analysts projecting continued declines this year, the casual-dining chains are revamping their operations to remain relevant.DineEquity spokesman Paul Kranhold, who notes that Applebee’s has posted positive same-store sales for the last four quarters, says the chain’s biggest threat isn’t newer rivals but “consumers who may be choosing to dine at home.” Brinker officials declined to comment.

Ruby Tuesday, which grew revenue in its fiscal 2011 for the first time in four years, is licensing and opening stores from Lime Fresh Mexican Grill, a Florida chain that looks a lot like a certain fast-casual competitor. Lime Fresh restaurants feature hammered copper countertops and earth-toned walls and sell the usual Mexican fare—guacamole, quesadillas, burritos—made from “humanely raised” food. The chain “plays on sustainably raised, better quality, more natural ingredients—not too dissimilar to what Chipotle has done,” says Robert Derrington, a restaurant analyst at investment firm Morgan Keegan. “It’s clearly positioned towards a younger demographic.”

Greg Ashley, Ruby Tuesday’s vice-president of finance, says he doesn’t view fast-casual rivals “as a threat at all,” and the tie-up with Lime Fresh is just another growth opportunity. The chain plans to open as many as nine Lime restaurants over the next 12 months, adding to the 10 that exist now.

Applebee’s is rehabbing its aging outlets—at about $200,000 a pop. For years the restaurants were cluttered with nostalgic Americana such as Tiffany-style lamps and carousel horses. Those are being swapped out for photos of local little league teams and firefighters to better align with Applebee’s slogan: “There’s No Place Like the Neighborhood.”

Millennials like to hit the bar after work. Hence Applebee’s “Girls’ Night Out” parties, which are advertised heavily on Facebook. Ruby Tuesday is pushing $5 cocktails made with açai berries, as well as craft beers. The fast-casual restaurants are doing the same. Chipotle serves beer and margaritas at most locations, while beer and wine is on the menu at select Five Guys stores.

Menus are getting a makeover, too. About time, says Sarah Perry, a 27-year-old arborist in Chicago who associates Chili’s and Applebee’s with “cheap food.” Five Guys “burgers are really fresh,” she says. “You don’t get that stale, come-from-the-box sort of taste.” Five Guys is also showing customers the origins of its veggies. At one of its Chicago stores, a sign notes that the outlet’s potatoes are from Clawson Farm in Idaho. Not to be outdone, Ruby Tuesday is dishing up spaghetti squash marinara, while Applebee’s sells entrees with fewer than 550 calories.

Will it be enough? Chipotle, with its stripped-down menu and industrial interiors, continues to attract long lines at lunch. Panera is winning over yuppie crowds with fresh salads and artisanal breads. And the upstarts are expanding rapidly. Five Guys plans to add 600 new locations in the next two years, for a total of about 1,400. Smashburger, which has 100 stores, is targeting Miami and Los Angeles for new locations. Says Smashburger Chief Executive Officer David Prokupek: “We’re getting a lot of people from casual-dining chains.”

The bottom line: Midpriced chains such as Applebee’s and Chili’s hope redesigned outlets, healthier fare, and cheap cocktails will win over fleeing millennials.

Patton is a reporter for Bloomberg News.


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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - Stocks, Bonds, FX -- 26/08/11

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Wealth Management for the Internet Age

By

Harris was CEO of Intuit from 1994 to 1999

Harris was CEO of Intuit from 1994 to 1999 Lionel Alvergnas/Alamy

The Internet has changed how we pay our bills and apply for loans. What has not evolved as much is the relationship between wealthy individuals and their financial advisers, who manage their clients’ holdings, take an annual cut of overall assets, and periodically offer updates in person or over the phone.

Bill Harris has a plan to bring this kind of personal wealth management into the Internet Age. A longtime Silicon Valley veteran and a former chief executive officer of Intuit, Harris has quietly worked for two years on a startup called Personal Capital, raising $27 million in financing. Harris hopes to create a new kind of financial-services firm catering to moderately wealthy individuals whose net worth—from a couple hundred thousand dollars to a couple million—is not quite fat enough to attract the high-priced investment advisers at Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs. “We want to bring personalized, high-end wealth management services to a part of the market that is fundamentally underserved,” Harris says.

At the center of Harris’s plans is a free site, personalcapital.com, that will help people track their finances and improve their portfolios. When the company formally launches in September, visitors will register their various bank accounts, investment accounts, 401(k)s, mortgages, and credit cards. They’ll get assessments of their exposure to risk and their allocations in various asset classes and geographies. They’ll also be able to measure the fees on their mutual funds and judge whether the performance justifies the price. Some of this mirrors what’s available on other sites such as Wikinvest and Sigfig.com, and with personal financial management software such as Mint.com.

Personal Capital wants to go further. It plans to match customers who seek hands-on help with one of its registered investment professionals. That is the part of the business that Harris calls “a pretty big swing for the fence,” and it’s competing with portfolio advisory services from the likes of Charles Schwab and Fidelity and with thousands of independent broker-dealers around the country. The startup currently employs eight wealth advisers in a call center in San Francisco and plans to add to that staff as the volume of customers grows. Each client is assigned an adviser who designs a personalized investment strategy and is available to talk via phone, e-mail, video chat, or instant messenger. The company will charge an annual fee of 0.75 percent to 0.95 percent of the invested assets as commission, undercutting the average for the wealth management industry of 1.5 percent to 2 percent. “We’ve tried to combine real-time data tools that allow you to understand and take control of your financial decisions with the ability to have a personal adviser, to whom you can delegate,” Harris says.

The company will face plenty of challenges. It’s launching into a gyrating stock market and a faltering economic recovery. Jim Bruene, editor of the Online Banking Report, is skeptical of the company’s plans but thinks the market environment might help. “There’s a lot of volatility, and people are looking for advisers,” he says. “On the other hand, will they go to a brand-new Internet company, or will they go back to a name they have heard about for the last 100 years?”

Then there are the more profound questions facing Personal Capital, such as: Why would anyone trust a financial adviser whom they’ve never met with some of the most important decisions they’ll ever face? Mitch Tuchman, CEO of a portfolio management software maker called MarketRiders, says Harris is wading into a field that tends to revolve around trust and relationships. “If I want to manage your money properly, I need to know a lot about you,” he says. “Do you have a mortgage? Does your wife work? I need to be in your life to give you good advice.”

Harris believes he can establish these kinds of relationships and notes that many of the independent broker-dealers that dominate this sector of the market end up violating their clients’ trust by funneling their assets into proprietary mutual funds, on which they earn a separate commission. Personal Capital will select primarily individual securities from around the world and says it will tailor strategies for each client. Harris also argues, not surprisingly, that the time is perfect for Personal Capital. “In the boom time, everyone thought they were a genius and could do it themselves. Few people think that today,” he says. “The question is, do people still need a handshake” with a financial professional? “I firmly believe they don’t.”

The bottom line: Bill Harris has raised $27 million to manage the finances of the moderately wealthy online, offering lower fees than traditional advisers.

Stone is a senior writer for Bloomberg Businessweek.


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Sunday, August 28, 2011

Understanding Options

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Saturday, August 27, 2011

What Will Apple Under CEO Tim Cook Look Like?

By

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It’s a question many in tech have pondered since Steve Jobs’s health issues cropped up several years ago: What would happen to Apple without Steve Jobs as CEO? Now we have to ponder the question for real, as the iconic businessman and chief executive officer of Apple just made his previous temporary medical leave permanent. He resigned on Wednesday as CEO of the company he co-founded and brought back from near bankruptcy. In his resignation letter to shareholders, Jobs recommended his longtime chief operating officer as his permanent replacement: “As far as my successor goes, I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim Cook as CEO of Apple.”

Though Jobs steps out of his role as CEO, he’ll remain as chairman of the board, Apple has confirmed. Though markets will likely react when they reopen Thursday morning—having already dipped about five percentage points Wednesday after market close—having Cook in the executive office isn’t a change likely to be felt immediately in terms of the way Apple does business and the types of products it makes. That’s because Cook and Jobs are said to be very much of the same mind in their philosophy of how to run the world’s most valuable technology company.

The choice of Cook is no surprise. Though Apple hadn’t made its succession plans public, it’s been widely assumed that Cook would assume the role of CEO. He’s been a senior vice-president at Apple since 1995 and COO since 2005, and Jobs has entrusted him with the title of official acting CEO twice before. He’s also the man credited with turning around Apple’s manufacturing process and improving its inventory and margins, which are the envy of the industry.

When called upon during Jobs’s previous absences, Cook has been a calming, familiar voice on the company’s earnings calls for investors. That’s because he has overseen some of the most successful quarters in Apple history.

During his most recent six-month-long temporary CEO role, beginning in January, Apple has:

• Increased its cash reserves from $60 billion to $76 billion.

At least temporarily become the most valuable public company in the world.

• Introduced a new iPad, dominated the tablet market, and sent industry heavyweight Hewlett-Packard running for cover.

• Had the iPhone remain the best-selling smartphone in the market, even after more than a year in release.

• Added more retail locations, including opening a fourth Apple Store in China, which has been a boon to the company’s bottom line.

• Been shepherded through a major new operating system update, launching OS X Lion last month.

Despite Cook’s clear ability to lead the company, he won’t be the public face of Apple in the way Jobs as CEO has become. Cook is known for being an extremely private person, and he’s not known to possess Jobs’s salesman qualities. So will we see Cook emceeing Apple events in the same style and manner as Jobs? Very likely not. We have seen Cook on stage at Apple press events, but this role will likely be shared, as it has been recently during Jobs’s absences, among Cook and other Apple executives like marketing chief Phil Schiller, head of iOS Scott Forstall, and hardware vice-president Bob Mansfield.


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Friday, August 19, 2011

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As China Says No More Stimulus, Obama Comes Begging For More.... While Promising Even MORE Cuts In The Unknown Future

Proving once again that when it comes to the definition of Banana Republic, America really has no equal, we first read in China Business News that according to PBOC adviser Li Daokui, China will "basically" maintain its existing monetary policy direction, and won't likely introduce stimulus measures as it did in 2008. Sorry "Rest of the World", you are on your own: China will no longer act as the last recourse economic (confidence) dynamo (because who the hell knows just what is going on in the mainland aside from building empty cities and grounding its entire monorail fleet, an action that was accompanied by so-called objective rating agency Dagong giving the rail ministry a rating higher than that of China itself!... once a rating agency...). However, this action of glaring sobriety does not stop our own fiscal monkeys from throwing feces at the stimulus wall in hopes something sticks. Just as last year the payroll tax was supposed to be the $100 billion gift that keeps on giving, yet crashed and burned miserable within months if not weeks, so this year we find that Obama is once again "recommending that the congressional deficit supercommittee back new measures to stimulate the lagging economy, people familiar with White House discussions said Tuesday." But that's not the funny part! No, the funny part is that even as he demands more alms, our munificent president would also "recommend the committee come up with a package that reduces the federal budget deficit by much more that its mandate of $1.5 trillion over the next decade, a senior administration official said, through changes in the tax code and social safety-net programs." So let us get this straight: more stimulus in the short-term, offset by quadrillions...nay... sextillions of savings at some point in the far future, long after the current administration is at the very bottom of the history books. Brilliant! But an even better idea: Obama should pull a Bryan Gardner and forge a money order from Hank Paulson, making Citi hand out a +/-$1 million check to every American, paid out of petty unaccounted for cash, as was the case before. Obviously, nobody noticed then; it is only Banana Republican that nobody will notice now.

More on this latest farce of short- vs long-termism from the WSJ:

"There's no reason to stop at $1.5 trillion," the official said.

Mr. Obama hasn't agreed to a set of proposals, people familiar with the discussions said, but the White House will begin to decide on elements of the plan in coming days. Mr. Obama is expected to make some decisions by Thursday.

Mr. Obama said in Iowa that when Congress returns from recess in September he will put forward "a very specific plan to boost the economy, to create jobs, and to control our deficit." He will unveil his plan before the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction's first meeting on Sept. 16.

The White House is looking for ways to boost the sluggish economy and bring down unemployment that is now stuck above 9%. Mr. Obama, facing re-election next year, has been pushing Congress for months to adopt a variety of stimulus measures, some of which he could urge the committee to embrace. These include extending unemployment-insurance benefits and a payroll-tax cut for employees, which expire at year end and together cost more than $160 billion a year, and an infrastructure bank that could cost as much as $30 billion. The White House is also looking at a payroll-tax cut for employers, worth perhaps as much as roughly $110 billion, and other tax breaks for businesses of as much as $55 billion.

Mr. Obama's recommendations could complicate the committee's task because the stimulus measures, by increasing government spending and reducing revenue, would worsen the deficit in the short term. But Mr. Obama would recommend ways to offset those effects, and the whole package would still reduce the deficit over 10 years.

Oh please, what would he complicate? At this point only the morons at Fitch and Moody's buy anything coming out of the CBO. Zero Hedge is willing to place a bet of unlimited fiat amount that in 3 years, the CBO's current forecast for the 2014 deficit will be at least 50% off from the reality (obviously in the wrong direction), which in turn will mean that the entire debt ceiling farce was for nothing as the $2.1 trillion in 10 year savings will be swallowed by the tens of trillions in additional deficit funding that will mysteriously appear over the next several years, and be required to keep the US(S) PonzAAi from running into yet another iceberg.

So give Obama what he wants.

At this point the only thing that can save the system is if "they" just accelerate the status quo's crash course with fate, and just blow everything up to smithereens, thereby making a grand reset inevitable.

The longer we pretend something, anything can be fixed, the more pain, suffering and death will come to the people of this insolvent world.

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The Challenges for McDonald's Top Chef

By Michael Arndt

The contestants on Iron Chef have it easy compared with Dan Coudreaut, director of culinary innovation at McDonald's (MCD). Sure, the TV duelists have just an hour to whip up five dishes incorporating the same ingredients. But check out Coudreaut's constraints: He's only allowed to prepare dishes that can be made by entry-level help at every one of the chain's U.S. 14,000 locations and from ingredients available in industrial quantities year-round. And, oh yeah, the food has to appeal every day to millions of customers who don't have a lot of money or time or the stomach for anything too unusual.

His challenge is apparent after a few minutes in his test kitchen, which is housed behind glass walls near a row of cubicles in McDonald's suburban Chicago headquarters. Dressed in a chef's smock, Coudreaut mixes toasted coriander and cumin with cilantro stems, lemongrass, ginger, and chilies in a blender. He stirs the spicy paste into coconut milk, which he reduces over high heat and adds to a pan of sauteed eggplant. And what might become of his red curry eggplant? After playing around more with the recipe, he says, some of the flavors might make their way into a ranch sauce in a few years.

Coudreaut, or Chef Dan as he's called within McDonald's, has navigated pretty well within his straits. Since hired on in 2004, he has led the creation of the Snack Wrap, the latest iterations of McDonald's chicken-topped salad entree, the Fruit and Walnut Salad, McCafé espresso-based coffees, and, most recently, the 1/3-lb. Angus burger. (He has blown it, too. McDonald's dropped the too-adventurous Hot 'n' Spicy McChicken sandwich in 2007 after just six months on the market and disappointing sales.)

The stream of new products is paying off. While restaurant sales have been sinking industrywide since the recession hit in 2007, McDonald's quarterly same-store sales have continued to climb. The string, which began in 2003, continues into the third quarter, with a 1.7% increase in the U.S. in August and 2.6% in July. CEO James A. Skinner credited the gains to premium coffees and the Angus burger.

The Angus burger followed a typical course, Coudreaut says. After seeing rivals such as Burger King (BKC) and Hardee's (CKR) boost sales with heavyweight cheeseburgers, McDonald's franchisees petitioned the company in early 2007 to come up with a premium sandwich of its own. Coudreaut invited chefs from McDonald's suppliers, including Cargill and Kraft Foods (KFT), to his test kitchen in Oak Brook, Ill., and together with his four-person staff they began cooking. They started with 20 types of patties, in various sizes and made from different cuts of beef, and 30 buns.

They tried a ciabatta roll and Italian flat bread, for instance, but the company's marketing team steered them back to a traditional bakery bun. "Americans have a sense of what a burger is," Coudreaut notes. "They want a sesame-seed bun."

After six months of team cooking and market research, Coudreaut weeded the choices down to one basic sandwich, with three sets of toppings. Then restaurant owners in key markets began testing the product to see if employees could follow the recipe reliably­—McDonald's kitchens weren't using bacon, sliced red onion, or sauteed mushrooms—and if customers liked it enough to spend $3.99 on a fast-food sandwich.


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Thursday, August 18, 2011

The U.S. Postal Service Nears Collapse

C:\Program By Devin Leonard

Phillip Herr looks like many of the men who toil deep within the federal government. He wears blue suits. He keeps his graying hair and mustache neatly trimmed. He has an inoffensively earnest manner. He also has heavy bags under his eyes, which testify to the long hours he spends scrutinizing federal spending for the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the congressional watchdog agency where he is Director of Physical Infrastructure Issues. As his title suggests, Herr devotes much of his time to highway programs. But for the past three years he has been diagnosing what ails the U.S. Postal Service.

It's a lonely calling. "Washington is full of Carnegie and Brookings Institutes with people who can tell you every option we have in Egypt or Pakistan," laments Herr, who has a PhD in anthropology from Columbia University. "Try and find someone who does that on the postal service. There aren't many."

Yet Herr finds the USPS fascinating: ubiquitous, relied on, and headed off a cliff. Its trucks are everywhere; few give it a second thought. "It's one of those things that the public just takes for granted," he says. "The mailman shows up, drops off the mail, and that's it."

He is struck by how many USPS executives started out as letter carriers or clerks. He finds them so consumed with delivering mail that they have been slow to grasp how swiftly the service's financial condition is deteriorating. "We said, 'What's your 10-year plan?' " Herr recalls. "They didn't have one."

Congress gave him until the end of 2011 to report on the USPS's woes. But Herr and his team concluded that the postal service's business model was so badly broken that collapse was imminent. Abandoning a long tradition of overdue reports, they felt they had to deliver theirs 18 months early in April 2010 to the various House and Senate committees and subcommittees that watch over the USPS. A year later, the situation is even grimmer. With the rise of e-mail and the decline of letters, mail volume is falling at a staggering rate, and the postal service's survival plan isn't reassuring. Elsewhere in the world, postal services are grappling with the same dilemma—only most of them, in humbling contrast, are thriving.

The USPS is a wondrous American creation. Six days a week it delivers an average of 563 million pieces of mail—40 percent of the entire world's volume. For the price of a 44¢ stamp, you can mail a letter anywhere within the nation's borders. The service will carry it by pack mule to the Havasupai Indian reservation at the bottom of the Grand Canyon. Mailmen on snowmobiles take it to the wilds of Alaska. If your recipient can no longer be found, the USPS will return it at no extra charge. It may be the greatest bargain on earth.

It takes an enormous organization to carry out such a mission. The USPS has 571,566 full-time workers, making it the country's second-largest civilian employer after Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). It has 31,871 post offices, more than the combined domestic retail outlets of Wal-Mart, Starbucks (SBUX), and McDonald's (MCD). Last year its revenues were $67 billion, and its expenses were even greater. Postal service executives proudly note that if it were a private company, it would be No. 29 on the Fortune 500.

The problems of the USPS are just as big. It relies on first-class mail to fund most of its operations, but first-class mail volume is steadily declining—in 2005 it fell below junk mail for the first time. This was a significant milestone. The USPS needs three pieces of junk mail to replace the profit of a vanished stamp-bearing letter.

During the real estate boom, a surge in junk mail papered over the unraveling of the postal service's longtime business plan. Banks flooded mailboxes with subprime mortgage offers and credit-card come-ons. Then came the recession. Total mail volume plunged 20 percent from 2006 to 2010.


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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

The Youth Unemployment Bomb

C:\Program

Cairo, Egypt: A cloud of tear gas drives back antigovernment protesters on Jan. 28 Jorge Dirkx/Reporters/Redux

By Peter Coy

In Tunisia, the young people who helped bring down a dictator are called hittistes—French-Arabic slang for those who lean against the wall. Their counterparts in Egypt, who on Feb. 1 forced President Hosni Mubarak to say he won't seek reelection, are the shabab atileen, unemployed youths. The hittistes and shabab have brothers and sisters across the globe. In Britain, they are NEETs—"not in education, employment, or training." In Japan, they are freeters: an amalgam of the English word freelance and the German word Arbeiter, or worker. Spaniards call them mileuristas, meaning they earn no more than 1,000 euros a month. In the U.S., they're "boomerang" kids who move back home after college because they can't find work. Even fast-growing China, where labor shortages are more common than surpluses, has its "ant tribe"—recent college graduates who crowd together in cheap flats on the fringes of big cities because they can't find well-paying work.

In each of these nations, an economy that can't generate enough jobs to absorb its young people has created a lost generation of the disaffected, unemployed, or underemployed—including growing numbers of recent college graduates for whom the post-crash economy has little to offer. Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution was not the first time these alienated men and women have made themselves heard. Last year, British students outraged by proposed tuition increases—at a moment when a college education is no guarantee of prosperity—attacked the Conservative Party's headquarters in London and pummeled a limousine carrying Prince Charles and his wife, Camilla Bowles. Scuffles with police have repeatedly broken out at student demonstrations across Continental Europe. And last March in Oakland, Calif., students protesting tuition hikes walked onto Interstate 880, shutting it down for an hour in both directions.

More common is the quiet desperation of a generation in "waithood," suspended short of fully employed adulthood. At 26, Sandy Brown of Brooklyn, N.Y., is a college graduate and a mother of two who hasn't worked in seven months. "I used to be a manager at a Duane Reade [drugstore] in Manhattan, but they laid me off. I've looked for work everywhere and I can't find nothing," she says. "It's like I got my diploma for nothing."

While the details differ from one nation to the next, the common element is failure—not just of young people to find a place in society, but of society itself to harness the energy, intelligence, and enthusiasm of the next generation. Here's what makes it extra-worrisome: The world is aging. In many countries the young are being crushed by a gerontocracy of older workers who appear determined to cling to the better jobs as long as possible and then, when they do retire, demand impossibly rich private and public pensions that the younger generation will be forced to shoulder.

In short, the fissure between young and old is deepening. "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones," former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato told Corriere della Sera. In Britain, Employment Minister Chris Grayling has called chronic unemployment a "ticking time bomb." Jeffrey A. Joerres, chief executive officer of Manpower (MAN), a temporary-services firm with offices in 82 countries and territories, adds, "Youth unemployment will clearly be the epidemic of this next decade unless we get on it right away. You can't throw in the towel on this."

The highest rates of youth unemployment are found in the Middle East and North Africa, at roughly 24 percent each, according to the International Labor Organization. Most of the rest of the world is in the high teens—except for South and East Asia, the only regions with single-­digit youth unemployment. Young people are nearly three times as likely as adults to be unemployed.


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Monday, August 8, 2011

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Sunday, August 7, 2011

Investing in Argentina's Wineries?

Via Pension Pulse.

Part of the perks of having a blog that is read by thousands of people is that you get to meet really interesting people, and they're not always in finance. In fact, some of the most interesting people I've met though my blog are not traders or investors, but just regular, hard-working folks or entrepreneurs.

On Wednesday, I had lunch with Nathan, an entrepreneur who with his partners has invested in Argentinian wineries. Nathan contacted me and I was more than happy to meet up with him. We met at a nice Portuguese restaurant near my house that makes the best BBQ chicken (their grilled chicken salad is awesome!).

I found Nathan to be smart, charming, well traveled, and very on top of things. I had met a buddy of his, Brian Ostroff of Winderemere Capital, who along with Jacques Lacroix and Paul Beattie of BT Global Growth told me all about Canada's phosphate reserves.

Nathan is smart and understands private and public markets. He has investment banking experience and reads a lot, including my blog, Zero Hedge and a few others. We talked about Greece, Israel, Turkey, China, Brazil, gold, the stock market, interest rates, the euro, timberland, infrastructure, farmland and of course, wineries in Argentina. It was a fsscinating discussion because I got fresh insight from someone who has traveled the world and knows the countries very well. Here are some insights I learned:

First, Argentina is simply breathtakingly beautiful. He showed me a series of photographs from the winery and I was in awe. They have the best meats and it's generally a safe country, especially if you compare it to other places like Brazil.Speaking of Brazil, Nathan thinks they're headed for a major slowdown. It won't happen right away and they have money pouring in to prepare for the World Cup and then the Olympics, but he thinks after that the country is in trouble. He told me despite what government officials say, income inequality is getting worse: "The poor and working poor are making more but it's not enough to keep up with the ultra-rich. Crime is a huge problem. If you go to Brazil, you don't want to venture off to the favelas. Their airports are crappy; they really need to revamp them fast for the Olympics and World Cup."Interestingly, I told him Brazil is the "hot spot" for Canadian pension funds investing in emerging markets. They are buying up everything, including shopping malls and public shares. He thinks that might come back to haunt them.In terms of the euro, I told him that I don't see it or the eurozone collapsing because there are too many global interests who want to see a unified Europe under one currency. He told me some very wealthy friends of his agree with me (those global macro funds shorting the euro, betting on a collapse will get slaughtered).The stock market made a comeback, making up all its losses, pretty much like I had predicted. Nathan was surprised but I told him there is no choice but to "reflate this sucker."I told him there are huge opportunities in Greece right now but there is no rush to move in. I even shared with him where he and his investors should be looking and what projects they can develop there. But right now, Greece is a mess and the taxi drivers are pissed off because their licenses are about to become worthless so they're wreaking havoc pretty much everywhere (the Greek government is so stupid! They should have partially compensated the taxi drivers and passed a law to make the strikes illegal).I asked him if he has been watching the massive strikes in Israel and he said yes. It's quite weird but there seems to be unrest pretty much everywhere now. I told him that Israeli tourists are flocking to Greece for their summer vacations because relations between Turkey and Israel have been strained since the flotilla incident.As far as Turkey is concerned, I told him the smartest move the National Bank of Greece did was close down their North American operations to focus on the Balkans and Turkey. But I also told him I am concerned about Turkey because it is becoming increasingly less secular (that is why the generals resigned last week) and it too could be hit hard in the coming years after growing like crazy over the last six years.We then got into an interesting discussion on timberland, infrastructure, farmland and wineries in Argentina. Nathan told me the Dutch pension funds and select US funds are very smart about investing in farmland, but Canadian funds are behind the curve. I told him that Canadian funds are into infrastructure projects in Chile and that PSP and bcIMC recently announced the TimberWest deal. Each investment carries its own set of risks, including investment sin timber, farmland, and infrastructure. As far as Argentina, they are developing the winery to have tourists come tastes wines and enjoy the scenery. They also have tons of land to sell to prospective investors. It is spectacular but I did ask him about how the country is doing now. He told me: "Unemployment is still high but they're much better off than 2001."I told him if he and his investors are worried that the government there will nationalize land like they nationalized pensions and he said "no because property rights are enshrined in their constitution."Finally, he told me to come visit the winery in Argentina and I think I'll take him up on the offer. Apparently March is the best time to visit, smack in the middle of harvest season.

I thank Nathan for this interesting lunch and will ask pension funds interested in receiving details about the project in Argentina to contact me by email (LKolivakis@gmail.com). Given the volatile state of public markets, it may make a lot of sense to invest in wineries. At the every least, if the stock market collapses, at least you'll be able to drink some good wine to help you forget about it. :-)


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France and Germany: One more bailout away from fiscal crisis

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

The debt ratios of the key players illustrates well (first chart) that virtually everyone is courting fiscal crisis. The easy way out of turning to bigger, more solvent governments for bailouts has run its course.  The chamber is empty. Government debt to GDP is running high everywhere. When a country (such as the U.S.) runs near 100% gross debt to GDP and household debt combined with huge future deficits, it’s already dead  on arrival.

Looking at the next dead-on-arrival candidates leads us to Germany and France. Although superficially it appears as if those countries are running a tight fiscal ship,  in reality they are highly exposed to enormous losses via the Troika mechanism they have set up to bailout the weak sisters of Europe. These sisters continue to come for more manna from heaven (tranches), which in turn further weakens the so-called core countries. How many more tranches can France absorb? Finally, France, with a debt to GDP of 88%, is being warned on its bogus, inflated, top-notch credit rating. The mere revelation and recognition of the Troika losses taken by France in particular as well as Germany  puts these countries into the tar pit.

The farce is played out as nations already in the tar pit, like Ireland, beg to take the extra weight placed off of them by having Irish banks take the loss, which in turn nails French and German banks. France and Germany refuse, as if refusing somehow changes the reality of the loss their banks already have. Meanwhile, the nasty austerity program set up for Greece to receive more heroin-drip tranches from the core are kicking in, resulting in a 10.9% drop in retail sales. In the meantime,  the Rube Goldberg machine that has been set up to deliver these tranches is belching and vomiting, as now Italy indicates it may no longer participate in the next outlay to Greece.  Portugal’s banks get all their funding from the ECB and, in turn, fund the Portuguese government while doing almost no lending within that country.  The word, clusterfuck comes to mind. This system is almost akin to having Germany paying war reparations to banksters in the 1920s. It can’t end well. The over-the-counter, shadow-banking, counter-party risk in all this is beyond the imagination, and well beyond the ability of the pseudo-government bailout response.

As if the tar-pit reality of dealing with Greece, Portugal and Ireland was not enough, these pseudo stronger Euro nations and their pseudo solutions will next be challenged with assisting in buying overpriced Italian debt.  Round one of the Troika’s shock-and-awe program last week, has already been completely reversed.

Italian ten year:

One-Year Chart for Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield (GBTPGR10:IND)

This will add further to the losses of the Troika.  As I have been reporting, U.S. money market funds have been withdrawing (some, much more to go) from Eurozone bank commercial paper, leaving Eurozone banks, and most importantly in Spain and Italy (and increasingly France), with a big gap in availability of short-term funding and a severe shortage of dollars. These dollars have jumped from the frying pan into the fire by fleeing into the pseudo safety U.S. Treasurys.

This post is reprinted from Russ’s premium service, Russ Winter’s Actionable. Click here for information.  


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Saturday, August 6, 2011

PLANK FOR THE BOKS!!

The new planking Fad are gripping the fans of the Springbok Rugby Team..

To join in the fun goto: http://springbokfans.com

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PLANK FOR THE BOKS!!

The new planking Fad are gripping the fans of the Springbok Rugby Team..

To join in the fun goto: http://springbokfans.com

Friday, August 5, 2011

The Fed and ECB's Fatal Mistakes Will Cost Us Dearly

The great currency collapse is now charging full steam ahead.  Europe is now finding itself in the unappealing position of having wasted hundreds of billions of Euros on bailing out a minor player (Greece) only to now face debt Crises from two countries (Spain and Italy) that it can’t possibly bail out.

This is why the entire Greek bailout concept was so terrible to begin with. If you’re going to be facing a sovereign debt crisis and need to insure stability in the region, why bother shooting all your ammo at a minor player? The EU would have been much better off kicking Greece out (not to mention the Greeks want out anyway), and kept some dry powder to confront the REAL problems (Spain and Italy).

The same goes for the Fed in the US. Bernanke and pals spent some $900 billion between QE lite and QE 2 and accomplished nothing. Indeed, they didn’t even let the market operate without QE for four months before they started teasing that more was coming.

As a result of this, they’ve now shown that QE really doesn’t accomplish anything (the economy took a nose dive in a BIG way in 1Q11). And they’ve created a market that is completely dependent on more QE NOT to Crash.

Truthfully, if the Fed wanted to keep things going as long as possible, it would have let more time pass between QE lite and QE 2. That way the markets could have traded in a range with just enough juice to stay afloat.

Instead, the Fed pumped its brains out, pushed the S&P 500 up to 1,350… and now has no ammunition left what-so-ever (if the Fed announces QE 3 it’s GAME OVER as it will prove QE is a complete and utter failure).

Which comes back to my primary point over the last year: that at some point the markets will no longer respond to any Fed intervention, because it will be clear that the Fed can’t solve the problems facing the financial system.

When this happens, the result will make the 2008 Crisis look like a joke. After all, the only thing that kept the markets afloat then was investors’ faith in the Fed. Take that faith away… and you’ve got yourself a REAL Crisis.

On that note, if you’ve yet to prepare your portfolio for Round Two of the Financial Crisis, you can find actionable investment ideas that will not only protect your portfolio, but help you produce outsized profits in my FREE report, The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit.

This report is over 17 pages long and includes detailed analysis of why the First Round of the Financial Crisis happened, why the next round (Round Two) will be even worse than 2008, and which investments can produce triple digit winners when the market crumbles.

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Good Investing!

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Royal Wedding Fans Celebrate With Crazy Cocktails, $330 Picnics

By Richard Vines

If you go out in London to mark the Royal Wedding on April 29, your options range from a $330 hamper to a 24-hour celebration with the chef Aldo Zilli. Or perhaps you'd prefer a special cocktail that tastes like a sponge cake.

Fortnum & Mason: The department store on Piccadilly holds a Royal Warrant and traces its history to 1707, so there's no shortage of experience of great events. Fortnum is offering ready-made picnics, with its Wicker Basket at 200 pounds ($330). It serves two and features dressed Scottish lobster and other gourmet options. Crockery and cutlery are included. Ordinary folk can opt for repasts starting at 40 pounds. Information: +44-20-7734-8040 or http://tinyurl.com/5t5ffs9.

Zilli Fish: Chef Aldo Zilli hosts a 24-hour marathon at his Soho restaurant. It starts with breakfast from 6 a.m. and he will be creating different menus throughout the day. There are plans for an al fresco barbecue. If you reckon you can last the full 24 hours, there's a chef's table. Information: +44-20-7734-8649 or http://www.zillirestaurants.co.uk/fish/.

Purl London: The cocktail bar has teamed up with the entrepreneur William Chase to produce the ultimate drink for the day. Royal Jam uses mainly English ingredients such as apple gin and includes strawberry conserve, lemon juice, lavender bitters and a splash of Nyetimber Brut sparkling wine. The main flavor is English Victoria sponge cake and the cocktail is served in a bone-china teacup and is accompanied by teapot of Earl Grey that is billowing with dry ice. It costs 9 pounds. Information: +44-20-7935-0835 or http://www.purl-london.com/.

Quaglino's: The restaurant is holding a black-tie gala dinner featuring classic dishes such as Bisque de Homard (Silver Jubilee menu 1977) and Le Parfait au Liqueur (Celebration menu 1950). There will also be music and dancing. Tickets are 60 pounds. Information: +44-20-7484-2002. (Quaglino's is part of the D&D London group, which has special menus at all its restaurants though May 2.) Information: http://www.danddlondon.com/.

Four Seasons: The Park Lane hotel is serving a Royal Afternoon Tea through May 1 in its Amaranto restaurant and lounge. It starts with a glass of Louis Roederer Champagne and the dishes include lobster and royal smoked salmon fillet roll. It costs 45 pounds. Information: +44-20-7319-5206 or http://bit.ly/bOHnNK.

Commonwealth Club: The private members' club near Westminster Abbey is offering everyone the Royal Wedding Experience for 40 pounds a person, with live coverage on plasma screens and a special breakfast and lunch menu. Information: +44-20-7766 9229 or http://bit.ly/hf4qSU.

Bentley's: Chef Richard Corrigan is cooking the dishes he prepared for Queen Elizabeth II on the BBC's "Great British Menu" and the ceremony will be screened live on the day. The menu will be available daily through May 2, excluding Saturday lunchtime. The three-course lunch is 65 pounds, including Champagne on arrival. Information: +44-20-7734-4756.

Hix at the Albemarle: This restaurant in Brown's hotel has a special Royal Wedding Brunch menu from midday to 4 p.m., while the event will be screened in the Donovan Bar, where brunch will be available from 10:30 a.m. (Dishes are priced individually.) Information: +44-20-7518-4004 or http://bit.ly/i4QxXy.

Roussillon: The restaurant is serving a Royal Wedding Brunch, including the option of scrambled duck eggs with Oscietra caviar, and a glass of Champagne for 37.50 pounds. There's a five-course dinner for 65 pounds. Yes, the restaurant will be showing television coverage all day.

The Ritz: The Royal Wedding Brunch, costing 150 pounds, is fully booked, as is the 50 pounds Royal Afternoon Tea. Here, just to tease you, is the lunch menu: http://bit.ly/e7fSIK. If you want to have a go at getting a table, you might call +44-20-7493-8181 and try saying you're a friend of the bride.

Nando's: If money's tight, there's always the chicken restaurant chain. It is inviting customers to come up with ideas for the best Nando's feast to mark the wedding: http://bit.ly/gDzfZG.

Richard Vines is the chief food critic for Muse, the arts and leisure section of Bloomberg News. Opinions expressed are his own.


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Thursday, August 4, 2011

David Rosenberg: The Recession Is A Virtual Certainty And Here Is How To Trade It

David Rosenberg released an emergency note today, in addition to his traditional morning piece, in which the sole topic is the upcoming recession, which he says is now a "virtual certainty". He also says what Zero Hedge has been saying for month: that 2011 is an identical replica of 2010, but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs decline before QE3 is launched. Sure enough, a major market tumble will fix all that in a few days, and ironically we can't help but continue to wonder whether the Fed is not actively doing all in its power to actually crash the market to about 20% lower which will send practically flatten the treasury curve and give Bernanke full reign to do as he sees fit. However, as long as the BTFD and mean reversion algos kick in every time the market makes a 2% correction, such efforts are doomed, which in turn makes all such dip buying futile. We give the market a few more weeks before it comprehends this. In the meantime, with each passing day in which "nothing happens", the recession within a depression looms closer, and soon it will be inevitable and not all the money printed by Bernanke will do much if anything (except to terminally wound the dollar). In the meantime, for those who wish to prepare for the double dip onset, here is Rosie's checklist of what to do, and what not.

Recession Protection

Moving increasingly to immunize portfolios from the rising prospect of a recession scenario while providing returns that cash, deposits and T-bills just can't rival what we are doing at the investment committee and asset mix level of our firm.

Let me begin by saying I don't think this will be classified as a "double dip" per se since so much time has elapsed since the last downturn. Be that as it may, it is evident that we will be going into another recession — I think at this point it's only a question of whether it has already begun — with the levels of output, employment and income all lower now than they were prior to the last contraction phase.

Plain-vanilla, garden-variety business expansions and contractions that are influenced by the manufacturing inventory cycle tend to have recessions separated between five and 10 years apart. That was certainly the experience that economists came to understand and appreciate in the post-WWII era. But in balance sheet cycles, which involve deleveraging, rising savings rates and asset deflation, recoveries are fragile and susceptible to the smallest of shocks and typically, recessions occur every two to three years. This puts a recession by 2012 squarely in the spotlight.

I have already pegged a U.S. recession as a virtual certainty, and respected economists like Martin Feldstein in recent days stated the odds were 50-50 and Larry Summers is at 1-in-3. I am fairly certain that Paul Krugman is close to where I am on this file. All that said, recession risks are rising and until we receive another positive policy shock from the Fed, these risks will remain acute for some time yet. We are replaying the summer of 2010 but only when the white knights of radical monetary and fiscal stimulus resurfaced did the "double dip" chatter subside and give way towards renewed growth and risk appetite — at least for a few months.

You can still make money for investors without taking undue risk ... and without having to shift into the ultra-safe world of zero percent-yielding cash or one percent GIC rates either.

Hedge funds that really hedge the risk or relative-value strategies that can go short low-quality and high-cyclical equities while going long a basket of high- quality and low-cyclical equities will be a money-maker in this environment. Those that have the capacity to short economically-sensitive stocks that trade at cycle-high P/E multiples may have an advantage in such a weakening macro and market environment.

A focus on hybrids or income-equity portfolios that have low correlations with the direction of the equity market and generate a yield far superior than what you can garner in the Treasury market makes perfect sense.

And if there is anything out there that is remotely close to "recession proof" it is corporate balance sheets and so an emphasis on credit is going to be critical — the idea is to be selective and identify those entities that have a single-A balance sheet but pay out a BBB yield.
We are believers that gold and gold mining stocks will prove to be profitable investments as the economic downturn inevitably prompts more money printing, not just out of the Fed, but other major central banks as well.

Commodities in general, energy and raw food in particular, should be a core position, as they are behaving less cyclically and more as a secular growth theme linked to the rapidly rising incomes in the emerging market economies.

The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession. That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction — cash should not have to be an option.

The key is to be positioned appropriately for the part of the business cycle we are on the cusp of entering. In a nutshell, what that means is carefully- constructed investment strategies and portfolios that preserve capital, minimize cyclical exposures, enhance yield and thereby provide for significant risk- adjusted returns—even in a recession. In light of these heightened volatile times, we also realize that this is not necessarily a buy and hold market, and the ability to move into equity markets and take advantage of weakness should also be a part of the strategy

Source: Gluskin Sheff

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Las Vegas Suffers a Recession Hangover

By Ben Levisohn

Las Vegas used to suggest playfully that visitors can forget any overindulgence they experienced while in town. Now city officials are urging business executives to remember why they wanted to come in the first place.

In an open letter published in The Wall Street Journal on Feb. 23, Las Vegas fired the first salvo in a new ad campaign that urges business executives to recall the city's nearly 10 million square feet of meeting space, its thousands of hotel rooms, and the 22,000 conventions staged there every year. It's a far cry from the glitz and innuendos that made Sin City America's playground—and a target for politicians everywhere. But will it be enough to revive the city's sagging fortunes?

That's not an academic question. Vegas is suffering more than most U.S. cities, across a broad front. Home prices have been cut in half since their June 2006 peak, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. Unemployment hit 9.1% in December, well above 7.2% nationally. The city's economy is narrowly focused on gaming, leisure, and consumer spending. So as vacationers pull back, Las Vegas is naturally in the crosshairs.

City officials had hoped that business meetings might pick up some of the slack. Those conventions and smaller meetings accounted for 46,000 jobs last year, nearly 15% of the city's employment base, and had an economic impact of $8.5 billion when all spending was accounted for. But now that a trip to Vegas has become synonymous with wasteful spending in the eyes of many investors and taxpayers—and with more and more businesses worrying about their public image as they queue up for public assistance—corporate visits are suffering as well.

"Pick a topic and Vegas is not doing well," says Mike Helmar, director of industry services for Moody's (MCO) Economy.com.

Reinventing Vegas won't be easy. Spurred by advertising, including the popular "What Happens Here, Stays Here" slogan, Vegas cemented its reputation as a place to misbehave—and to reward boom-time performance. Visitors flocked to the city (39 million in 2007 alone, an 11% increase from 2002), rooms filled up (occupancy hit 90% in 2007, up from 84%), and gaming revenue surged (to $10.8 billion from $7.6 billion, a 42% gain). That growth was reflected in the Vegas area's gross metro product, which grew at a 10% clip from 2001 to 2006, according to the most recent data. It was as if the disastrous earlier attempt to position Vegas as a family-friendly hot spot never happened.

"What Happens Here, Stays Here" reached 70% awareness in January 2005, according to an internal memo from R&R Partners, the agency that created the ad. But in hindsight, that branding effort might have been too successful. In this environment, being viewed as America's playground may be dragging the city down.

Financial-services firms in particular have been avoiding Sin City. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) moved meetings from Vegas to San Francisco after comments from President Barack Obama grouped trips to the Strip with banker bonuses. "…You are not going to be able to give out these big bonuses until you pay taxpayers back," Obama said at a Feb. 9 town hall meeting in Elkhart, Ind. "You can't take a trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on the taxpayers' dime."


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Tuesday, August 2, 2011

How Long Can the ECB Prop Up Europe’s Sick Banks?

ECB President Trichet working on Portugal's rescue

ECB President Trichet working on Portugal's rescue Georges Gobet/AFP/Getty Images

By and

Four years to the month since the global credit crisis began, the European Central Bank has emerged as the lender of first resort to the Continent’s broken banks. With the bond market shut off to all but the strongest lenders, the ECB’s unlimited loans are keeping the most afflicted banks in Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain afloat. “Banks are becoming more nervous about being exposed to other banks as they hoard liquidity and become more suspicious of other banks’ balance sheets,” Guillaume Tiberghien, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to clients on Aug. 19.

On that date, banks deposited €105.9 billion ($152 billion) with the ECB overnight, almost three times this year’s average, rather than lend the money to other banks. They are also stockpiling dollars and hoarding cash in safe havens such as Swiss francs. “I’m not sleeping at night,” says Charles Wyplosz, director of the Geneva-based International Center for Money and Banking Studies. “We have moved into a new phase of crisis.”

Investors are concerned, too. The price of European bank stocks sank 22 percent between Aug. 1 and Aug. 22, led by Royal Bank of Scotland (down 45 percent) and France’s Société Générale (down 39 percent). The extra yield investors demand to buy bank bonds instead of benchmark government debt surged to 2.98 percentage points on Aug. 19, the highest since July 2009, data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch show.

Despite the ECB’s best efforts, some of Europe’s banks may be inching toward insolvency. The cost of insuring the bonds of 25 European banks and insurers set a record high on Aug. 24 of 257 basis points, higher than the 149 basis-point spike when Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008, according to the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit default swaps. The banks aren’t required to mark down most of their holdings of government debt to market prices. If they did, some would be forced to default or seek a bailout.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Europe’s banks need to raise €80 billion by yearend. Their ability to raise capital has been sharply curbed by investor fears. Banks in the region hold €98.2 billion of Greek sovereign debt, €317 billion of Italian government debt, and about €280 billion of Spanish bonds, according to European Banking Authority data.

The Federal Reserve, which provided as much as $1.2 trillion of loans to banks in December 2008, wound down most of its emergency programs by early 2010. One of the few exceptions is the central bank liquidity swap lines that provide dollars to the ECB and other central banks, so they can auction off the dollars to banks in their own jurisdictions.

In contrast, the ECB and its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, are still in the bank-rescuing business. “The central bank is the only clearer left to settle funds between banks,” says Christoph Rieger, head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. After increasing its benchmark rate twice this year to counter inflation, the ECB in August provided relief for banks by buying Italian and Spanish bonds for the first time, lending unlimited funds for six months and even providing one unnamed bank with badly needed dollars.

The ECB is maintaining a role it began in August 2007 when it injected cash into markets after they froze. The ECB’s balance sheet is now 73 percent bigger than in August 2007, and its latest round of bond buying has opened it to accusations that by rescuing profligate nations it’s breaking a rule of the euro’s founding treaty and undermining its credibility. The central bank is acting in part because governments have yet to ratify a plan to extend the scope of a €440 billion rescue facility so it can buy sovereign bonds on the open market, which would allow governments to inject capital into the banks. Although the euro zone member governments are supposed to approve the new funding by fall, no one can say for sure.

The funding difficulties of Europe’s banks is one reason cited by Morgan Stanley economists on Aug. 17 for cutting their forecast for euro-area growth to 0.5 percent next year, less than half the 1.2 percent previously anticipated. Europe’s consumers and companies are more reliant on banks for funding than their U.S. counterparts, says Tobias Blattner, a former ECB economist now at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe in London.

Lena Komileva, Group of 10 strategy head at Brown Brothers Harriman in London, says the ECB may have no option but to extend the backstop role it is playing. Refusal to do so would risk a European bank default by the end of the year, she says: “Markets are back in uncharted territory. The crisis is a whole new story now.”

The bottom line: Some European banks hold almost half a trillion euros in questionable government bonds. They’re relying on ECB funding to stay in business.

Kennedy is a reporter for Bloomberg News. Finch is a reporter for Bloomberg News.


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The World's Most Innovative Companies

podcastIt was a fitting way to wrap up the first day of IBM's (IBM ) innovation-themed leadership forum, held in Rome in early April. Guests were treated to small group tours of the Vatican Museum, including Michelangelo's frescoes in the Sistine Chapel. They sipped cocktails on a patio in the back of St. Peter's, the vast dome of the basilica outlined by the light of the moon. They dined in a marble-statue-filled hall inside the Vatican. What better place than Italy to hold a global confab on innovation, the topic di giorno among corporate leaders? It was, after all, the birthplace of the Renaissance, another period of great innovation and change. The next day, at the Auditorium Parco della Musica, 500-odd corporate executives, government leaders, and academics listened as a diverse group of innovative leaders took the stage. Sunil B. Mittal, chief executive officer of Indian telecom company Bharti Tele-Ventures Ltd., described his radical business model, which outsources everything but marketing and customer management, charges 2 cents a minute for calls, and is adding a million customers a month. Yang Mingsheng, CEO of Agricultural Bank of China, the country's second-biggest commercial bank, spoke of building a banking powerhouse from a modest business making micro loans to peasant farmers.

Their stories echoed a comment IBM CEO Samuel J. Palmisano had made the day before: "The way you will thrive in this environment is by innovating -- innovating in technologies, innovating in strategies, innovating in business models."

Palmisano, to be sure, was making a subtle pitch for IBM and its ability to help the assembled leaders do well in an increasingly challenging business environment. But he also summed up the broad focus of innovation in the 21st century.

Today, innovation is about much more than new products. It is about reinventing business processes and building entirely new markets that meet untapped customer needs. Most important, as the Internet and globalization widen the pool of new ideas, it's about selecting and executing the right ideas and bringing them to market in record time.

In the 1990s, innovation was about technology and control of quality and cost. Today, it's about taking corporate organizations built for efficiency and rewiring them for creativity and growth. "There are a lot of different things that fall under the rubric of innovation," says Vijay Govindarajan, a professor at Dartmouth College's Tuck School of Business and author of Ten Rules for Strategic Innovators: From Idea to Execution. "Innovation does not have to have anything to do with technology."

THE QUICK AND THE BLOCKED 
To discover which companies innovate best -- and why -- BusinessWeek joined with The Boston Consulting Group to produce our second annual ranking of the 25 most innovative companies. More than 1,000 senior managers responded to the global survey, making it our deepest management survey to date on this critical issue.

The new ranking has companies evoking all types of innovation. There are technology innovators, such as BlackBerry maker and newcomer Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM ), which makes its debut on our list at No. 24. There are business model innovators, such as No. 11 Virgin Group Ltd., which applies its hip lifestyle brand to ho-hum operations such as airlines, financial services, and even health insurance. Process innovators are there, too: Rounding out the ranking is Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV ) at No. 25, a whiz at wielding operational improvements to outfly its competitors.

At the top of the list are the masters of many genres of innovation. Take Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL ), once again the creative king. To launch the iPod, says innovation consultant Larry Keeley of Doblin Inc., Apple used no fewer than seven types of innovation. They included networking (a novel agreement among music companies to sell their songs online), business model (songs sold for a buck each online), and branding (how cool are those white ear buds and wires?). Consumers love the ease and feel of the iPod, but it is the simplicity of the iTunes software platform that turned a great MP3 player into a revenue-gushing phenomenon.

Toyota Motor Corp., which leapt 10 spots this year to No. 4, is becoming a master of many as well. The Japanese auto giant is best known for an obsessive focus on innovating its manufacturing processes. But thanks to the hot-selling Prius, Toyota is earning even more respect as a product innovator. It is also collaborating more closely with suppliers to generate innovation. Last year, Toyota launched its Value Innovation strategy. Rather than work with suppliers just to cut costs of individual parts, it is delving further back in the design process to find savings spanning entire vehicle systems.

The BusinessWeek-BCG survey is more than just a Who's Who list of innovators. It also focuses on the major obstacles to innovation that executives face today. While 72% of the senior executives in the survey named innovation as one of their top three priorities, almost half said they were dissatisfied with the returns on their investments in that area.

The No. 1 obstacle, according to our survey takers, is slow development times. Fast-changing consumer demands, global outsourcing, and open-source software make speed to market paramount today. Yet companies often can't organize themselves to move faster, says George Stalk Jr., a senior vice-president with BCG who has studied time-based competition for 25 years. Fast cycle times require taking bets even when huge payoffs aren't a certainty. "Some organizations are nearly immobilized by the notion that [they] can't do anything unless it moves the needle," says Stalk. In addition, he says, speed requires coordination from the hub: "Fast innovators organize the corporate center to drive growth. They don't wait for [it] to come up through the business units."

Indeed, a lack of coordination is the second-biggest barrier to innovation, according to the survey's findings. But collaboration requires much more than paying lip service to breaking down silos. The best innovators reroute reporting lines and create physical spaces for collaboration. They team up people from across the org chart and link rewards to innovation. Innovative companies build innovation cultures. "You have to be willing to get down into the plumbing of the organization and align the nervous system of the company," says James P. Andrew, who heads the innovation practice at BCG.

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG ) (No. 7) has done just that in transforming its traditional in-house research and development process into an open-source innovation strategy it calls "connect and develop." The new method? Embrace the collective brains of the world. Make it a goal that 50% of the company's new products come from outside P&G's labs. Tap networks of inventors, scientists, and suppliers for new products that can be developed in-house.

The radically different approach couldn't be shoehorned into managers' existing responsibilities. Rather, P&G had to tear apart and restitch much of its research organization. It created new job classifications, such as 70 worldwide "technology entrepreneurs," or TEs, who act as scouts, looking for the latest breakthroughs from places such as university labs. TEs also develop "technology game boards" that map out where technology opportunities lie and help P&Gers get inside the minds of its competitors.

To spearhead the connect-and-develop efforts, Larry Huston took on the newly created role of vice-president for innovation and knowledge. Each business unit, from household care to family health, added a manager responsible for driving cultural change around the new model. The managers communicate directly with Huston, who also oversees the technology entrepreneurs and managers running the external innovation networks. "You want to have a coherent strategy across the organization," says Huston. "The ideas tend to be bigger when you have someone sitting at the center looking at the company's growth goals."

ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS 
Coordinating innovation from the center is taken literally at BMW Group (BMW ), No. 16 on the list. Each time BMW begins developing a car, the project team's members -- some 200 to 300 staffers from engineering, design, production, marketing, purchasing, and finance -- are relocated from their scattered locations to the auto maker's Research and Innovation Center, called FIZ, for up to three years. Such proximity helps speed up communications (and therefore car development) and encourages face-to-face meetings that prevent late-stage conflicts between, say, marketing and engineering. In 2004 these teams began meeting in the center's new Project House, a unique structure that lets them work a short walk from the company's 8,000 researchers and developers and alongside life-size clay prototypes of the car in development.

For many companies, cross-functional collaborations last weeks or months, not years. Southwest recently gathered people from its in-flight, ground, maintenance, and dispatch operations. For six months they met for 10 hours a week, brainstorming ideas to address a broad issue: What are the highest-impact changes we can make to our aircraft operations?

The group presented 109 ideas to senior management, three of which involve sweeping operational changes. One solution about to be introduced will reduce the number of aircraft "swaps" -- disruptive events that occur when one aircraft has to be substituted for another during mechanical problems. Chief Information Officer Tom Nealon says the diversity of the people on the team was crucial, mentioning one director from the airline's schedule planning division in particular. "He had almost a naive perspective," says Nealon. "His questions were so fundamental they challenged the premises the maintenance and dispatch guys had worked on for the last 30 years."

Managers are scrambling to come up with ways to measure and raise the productivity of their innovation efforts. Yet the BusinessWeek-BCG survey shows widespread differences over which metrics -- such as the ratio of products that succeed, or the ROI of innovation projects -- should be used and how best to use them. Some two-thirds of the managers in the survey say metrics have the most impact in the selection of the right ideas to fund and develop. About half say they use metrics best in assessing the health of their company's innovation portfolio. But as many as 47% said measurements on the impact of innovation after products or services have been launched are used only sporadically.

Actually, most managers in the survey aren't monitoring many innovation metrics at all; 63% follow five gauges or fewer. "Two or three metrics just don't give you the visibility to get down to root causes," says BCG's Andrew. Then there are companies that track far too many. Andrew says one of the top innovators on our list -- he's mum as to which one -- collects 85 different innovation metrics in one of its businesses. "That means they manage none of them," he says. "They default to a couple, but they spend an immense amount of time and effort collecting those 85."

The sweet spot is somewhere between 8 and 12 metrics, says Andrew. That's about the number that Samsung Electronics Co. uses, says Chu Woosik, a senior vice-president at the South Korean company. Chu says the most important metrics are price premiums and how quickly they can bring to market phones that delight customers. Samsung also watches the allocation of investments across projects and its new-product success ratio. That, Chu says, has nearly doubled in the last five years. "You want to see it from every angle," he says. "A lot of companies fall into the trap that they thought things were really improving, but in the end, it didn't work out that way. We don't want to make that mistake."

AWARDS AND ETHNOGRAPHY 
One of the biggest mistakes companies may make is tying managers' incentives too directly to specific innovation metrics. Tuck's Govindarajan warns that linking pay too closely to hard innovation measures may tempt managers to game the system. A metric such as the percentage of revenue from new products, for instance, can lead to incremental brand extensions rather than true breakthroughs. In addition, innovation is such a murky process that targets are likely to change. "There's a dialogue that needs to happen," says Govindarajan. "Operating plans may need to be reviewed, or you may need to change plans because a new competitor came into your space."

Susan Schuman, CEO of Stone Yamashita Partners, which works with CEOs on innovation and change, says that besides numbers-driven metrics, some clients are adding subjective assessments related to innovation, such as a manager's risk tolerance, to performance evaluations. "It's not just about results," she says. "It's how did you lead people to get to those results."

That's one reason the bastion of Six Sigma-dom, General Electric Co. (GE ), has begun evaluating its top 5,000 managers on "growth traits" that include innovation-oriented themes such as "external focus" and "imagination and courage." GE has also added more flexibility into its traditionally rigid performance rankings. GE will now have to square its traditional Six Sigma metrics, which are all about control, with its new emphasis on innovation, which is more about managing risk. That's a major change in culture.

How do you build an innovation culture? Try carrots. Several companies on our list have formal rewards for top innovators. Nokia Corp. (NOK ) inducts engineers with at least 10 patents into its "Club 10," recognizing them each year in a formal awards ceremony hosted by CEO Jorma Ollila.

3M (MMM ) has long awarded "Genesis Grants" to scientists who want to work on outside projects. Each year more than 60 researchers submit formal applications to a panel of 20 senior scientists who review the requests, just as a foundation would review academics' proposals. Twelve to 20 grants, ranging from $50,000 and $100,000 apiece, are awarded each year. The researchers can use the money to hire supplemental staff or acquire necessary equipment.

Of course, rewards won't help if the inventions aren't focused on customer needs. Getting good consumer insight is the fourth most cited obstacle to innovation in our survey. Blogs and online communities now make it easier to know what customers are thinking. Hiring designers and ethnographers who observe customers using products at work or at home helps, too. But finding that Holy Grail of marketing, the "unmet need" of a consumer, remains elusive. "You need time, just thinking time, to step out of the day to day to see what's going on in the world and what's going on with your customers," says Stone Yamashita's Schuman.

THE WORLD IS YOUR LAB 
Try learning journeys. That's what Starbucks Corp. (SBUX ), up 10 spots from 2005 to No. 9, does. While the coffee company began doing ethnography back in 2002 and relies on its army of baristas to share customer insights, it recently started taking product development and other cross-company teams on "inspiration" field trips to view customers and trends. Two months ago, Michelle Gass, Starbucks' senior vice-president for category management, took her team to Paris, Düsseldorf, and London to visit local Starbucks and other restaurants to get a better sense of local cultures, behaviors, and fashions. "You come back just full of different ideas and different ways to think about things than you would had you read about it in a magazine or e-mail," says Gass.

A close watch of customer insights can also bring innovation to even the most iconic and established products. Back in 2003, 3M began noticing and monitoring two consumer trends. One was troubling: Customers were using laptops, cell phones, and BlackBerrys to send quick memos or jot down bits of information. Every thumb-tapped message or stylus-penned note on a personal digital assistant meant one less Post-it note.

The other trend, however, was encouraging: the rise of digital photography. While observing consumers, 3M researchers asked to see their photos. What followed was always a clunky process: Consumers would scroll through screen upon screen of photos or have to dig through a drawer for the few shots they printed. Nine months later a team of one marketer and two lab scientists hit upon the idea of Post-it Picture Paper, or photo paper coated with adhesive that lets people stick their photos to a wall for display. "We listened carefully to what consumers didn't say and observed what they did," says Jack Truong, vice-president of 3M's office supply division.

To get a sense of the value of customer research, imagine you're a Finnish engineer trying to design a phone for an illiterate customer on the Indian subcontinent. That's the problem Nokia faced when it began making low-cost phones for emerging markets. A combination of basic ethnographic and long-term user research in China, India, and Nepal helped Nokia understand how illiterate people live in a world full of numbers and letters. The result? A new "iconic" menu that lets illiterate customers navigate contact lists made up of images.

Other innovative ideas followed. By listening to customers in poorer countries, Nokia learned that phones had to be more durable, since they're often the most expensive item these customers will buy. To function in a tropical climate, it made the phones more moisture-resistant. It even used special screens that are more legible in bright sunlight.

Consumers increasingly are doing the innovation themselves. Consider Google Inc. (GOOG ), our No. 2 innovator, and its mapping technology, which it opened to the public. This produced a myriad of "mash-ups" in which programmers combine Google's maps with anything from real estate listings to local poker game sites.

Google's mash-ups are just one example of the escalating phenomenon of open innovation. These days the world is your R&D lab. Customers are co-opting technology and morphing products into their own inventions. Many companies are scouting for outside ideas they can develop in-house, embracing the open-source movement, and joining up with suppliers or even competitors on big projects that will make them more efficient and more powerful. "When you work with outside parties, they bear some of the costs and some of the risks, and can accelerate the time to market," says Henry W. Chesbrough, the University of California at Berkeley Haas School of Business professor who helped establish the concept with his 2003 book, Open Innovation.

India and China are growing sources of innovation for companies, too. The BusinessWeek-BCG survey shows that they are nearly as popular as Europe among innovation-focused executives. When asked where their company planned to increase R&D spending, 44% answered India, 44% said China, and 48% said Western Europe. Managers tended to look to the U.S. and Canada for idea generation, while a lower percentage looked to Europe for the same tasks. India and China, though, are still seen as centers for product development.

Few companies have embraced the open innovation model as widely as IBM, No. 10 on our list. While the company's proprietary technology is still a force to behold -- Big Blue remains the world's largest patent holder, with more than 40,000 -- the company is opening up its technology to developers, partners, and clients. Last year it made 500 of its patents, mainly for software code, freely available to outside programmers. And in November it helped fund the Open Invention Network, a company formed to acquire patents and offer them royalty-free to help promote the open-source software movement.

Why the generosity? IBM believes that by helping to create technology ecosystems, it will benefit in the long run. "We want to do things that encourage markets to grow," says Dr. John E. Kelly III, senior vice-president for technology and intellectual property at IBM. By helping nurture those markets, says Kelly, "we know we'll get at least our fair share."

GOING OUTSIDE FOR IDEAS 
P&G has helped establish several outside networks of innovators it turns to for ideas the company can develop in-house. These networks include NineSigma, which links up companies with scientists at university, government, and private labs; YourEncore Inc., which connects retired scientists and engineers with businesses; and yet2.com Inc., an online marketplace for intellectual property.

Only a CEO can change a business culture at top speed, and in Alan G. Lafley, P&G has its own innovator-in-chief. Lafley sits in on all "upstream" R&D review meetings, 15 a year, that showcase new products. He also spends three full days a year with the company's Design Board, a group of outside designers who offer their perspective on upcoming P&G products. "He's sort of the chief innovation officer," says P&G's Huston. "He's very, very involved."

That sort of support from the CEO is essential, says Jon R. Katzenbach, co-founder of New York-based management consultancy Katzenbach Partners LLC. "The CEO determines the culture," he says. "If the CEO is determined to [improve] the surfacing of ideas and determined to make critical choices, then the chances of an [organization's] figuring that out are much, much greater."

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY ), the Bangalore-based information technology services company that popped up at No. 10 on our Asia-Pacific list, takes a direct approach to making sure management stays involved in the innovation process. Chairman and "chief mentor" N.R. Narayana Murthy introduced the company's "voice of youth" program seven years ago.

Each year the company selects nine top-performing young guns -- each under 30 -- to participate in its eight yearly senior management council meetings, presenting and discussing their ideas with the top leadership team. "We believe these young ideas need the senior-most attention for them to be identified and fostered," says Sanjay Purohit, associate vice-president and head of corporate planning. Infosys CEO Nandan M. Nilekani concurs: "If an organization becomes too hierarchical, ideas that bubble up from younger people [aren't going to be heard]."

Mike Lazaridis, president and co-CEO of Research In Motion, hosts an innovation-themed, invitation-only "Vision Series" session in the Waterloo (Ont.)-based company's 100-seat auditorium each Thursday. The standing-room-only meetings focus on new research and future goals for the company that gave us the BlackBerry.

Lazaridis is likely the only chief executive of a publicly traded company who has an Academy Award for technical achievement. (He won it in 1999 for an innovative bar-code reader that he helped invent that expedites film editing and production.) He has donated $100 million of his own money to fund a theoretical physics institute and an additional $50 million to a university quantum computing and nanotechnology engineering center in Waterloo. He has even appeared in an American Express (AXP ) commercial, scratching complex equations across a blackboard while proclaiming his commitment to the creative process. "I think we have a culture of innovation here, and [engineers] have absolute access to me," says Lazaridis. "I live a life that tries to promote innovation." As the BusinessWeek-BCG survey demonstrates, it is a life every manager around the world must embrace.


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